Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Trevor Lawrence be a top-12 QB?
2. Who will back up Travis Etienne, and will it matter?
3. Are Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas no worse than weekly streamers?
4. Can Gabe Davis be a top-50 WR?
5. Is Evan Engram a top-6 TE?
We are (or at least I am) waiting for Trevor Lawrence to be the incredible NFL QB he was widely expected to become after getting drafted #1 overall. And maybe we (I) should cut him a little slack. He's still only 24 years old -- plenty of time to put it all together.
This year he's one of my biggest QB bargains with QB8 ranking. No hesitation, although his market value (QB14 ADP) suggests I should hesitate a lot. But his upside is too good to consider him a non-top-12 option. His overall ADP is 118. I've got him at #56. That doesn't mean I'm advising managers to draft him inside the top 60. Most managers probably won't look his way until pick 90 at the earliest. So if you're picking 10th in a 12-team league, you can get him in the 8th round with pick 87.
I'm also bullish about the Jags' backfield. Yes, there are public warnings that this team doesn't want to overwork Travis Etienne. Makes sense. And last year's workload is a yellow flag. But somewhere between 250 and 350 touches is the sweet spot. He was the RB17 on 255 touches two years ago. Top 8 numbers are likely if he gets 290 touches. Also remember that his targets skyrocketed last year. He should be in line for 50+ catches again, making him one of fantasy's safest (highest-floor) RBs.
The guys behind him make me nervous, and I'm probably not alone. Tank Bigsby has to rebound from his atrocious rookie season, and the early buzz isn't hopeful. That said, his RB65 ADP makes him hard to pass up if you snag Etienne. D'Ernest Johnson looked equally bad last year, while rookie Keilan Robinson never exceeded 52 touches in a college campaign. Maybe Jacksonville add another body to the mix before September. Johnson is the only expendable RB, signed to a cheap one-year contract. Keep an eye on a trade for someone like A.J. Dillon (pure speculation)--a veteran third-string back who can eat up touches if Bigsby flops next month.
The receiving corps reminds me a little of the Bears' trio. No doubt, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen at their best are better than Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, while Rome Odunze should be better than Brian Thomas. However, Lawrence almost assuredly (at this stage of his career) can elevate Jags WRs better than Caleb Williams can elevate Bears WRs. Last season, Jacksonville had two WRs finish in the top 34 in points per game. Assuming Lawrence does as well as I think he will, we should expect at least two Jags to do it again.
Kirk is a slight buy at his WR28 ADP. The same goes for Thomas (WR44 ADP). Davis (WR64 ADP) is an "I'll believe it when I see it" flier. If I draft based on this assessment, it could make or break my season. Because I'd be thrilled to stack Kirk and Thomas with Lawrence at cost. In a 12-team league, Kirk's a fourth-rounder, Thomas is a seventh-rounder, and Lawrance is hovering just inside the 10th. Not a lot to give up to go all in on a seemingly ascending offense.
Of course, Evan Engram is also a big part of this, too. His TE8 ADP assumes a regression. The 29-year-old led all tight ends last year with 114 catches. He was the overall TE2. A modest drop to TE6 is reasonable, but pushing into the back half of the top 12 seems like an over-correction for a guy who didn't exactly come out of nowhere. We waited years for Engram to break out. Now he's had back-to-back career-best campaigns. He should be coming off the board a round early.
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