Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Drake Maye get a chance to have a rookie-year impact?
2. Is Rhamondre Stevenson a safe weekly fantasy starter?
3. Can Antonio Gibson re-gain relevance?
4. Could DeMario Douglas or Javon Baker lead the WR corps, and would it even matter?
5. Is Hunter Henry draftable?
New England's post-Bill-Belichick era has begun, closing out a five-year-stretch when the franchise didn't win a single playoff game. The previous longest drought (three-year stretch) began in 2008--the same season first-round draft pick Jerod Mayo won Defensive Rookie of the Year.
It's now Mayo's team, though who knows for how long. He has inherited one of the league's worst offenses, with a passing attack that failed to eclipse 230 yards in 15 of its last 16 contests. Mac Jones is another in a long line of first-round QB busts. The team is starting over with #3 overall pick Drake Maye.
Except Maye might not even win the starting job over journeyman Jacoby Brissett, who's now on his fifth team in the past five seasons. Fantasy managers investing in New England receivers--and possibly running backs--have to hope Maye takes the helm early, giving him time to develop ahead of December and January. Brissett has thrown more than two TD passes only once in his last 25 starts. That one occurrence consisted of two garbage-time touchdowns with four minutes remaining in a blowout loss, when he had Nick Chubb, a still-solid Kareem Hunt, and Amari Cooper anchoring his offense. The sooner Maye takes over, the sooner managers can go for broke rather than settle for mere adequacy.
Meanwhile, the Patriots made an odd decision to extend Rhamondre Stevenson for four more years, handing him $17 million guaranteed. While I'm 100% in favor of RBs earning deserved paydays, Stevenson makes me a little nervous. Now 26 years old, he endured career-lows in yards per carry and broken-tackle rate in 2023 while missing five games. Yes, he could bounce back. Or he'll be the lead running back in a sub-par offense, barely justifying his RB20 ADP. Receptions are great. Durability is questionable. Touchdown opportunities are anyone's guess.
The good news for Stevenson is his lack of serious competition, at least for now. Antonio Gibson was mis-cast as a bell cow coming out of college five years ago. He's better suited as a change-of-pace option who could hit 40+ catches. Not a bad lunge given his RB52 ADP and with no other Patriot RB cracking the top 115. Unless Kevin Harris somehow steps up, or unless this likely non-playoff team finds it necessary to sign or trade for a capable starter, Stevenson and Gibson should combine for 300+ touches. Unless he flops by early August, Gibson is the PPR value play with a decent floor and top 38-40 ceiling.
The wideout corps is a who's who of "Who?" Jalen Reagor is still in the league, joining fellow former draft bust Tyquan Thornton in the "just trying to make the team" group. JuJu Smith-Schuster and K.J. Osborn are known commodities, though with no guaranteed roles. When healthy, Kendrick Bourne has looked like one of New England's best receivers for most of the past three seasons, though his WR96 ADP is a reminder of the frequent futility of investing in Patriots WRs.
That leaves rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, as well as second-year upstart DeMario Douglas. Fantasy relevance probably will elude all but one New England wideout, and the market continues to pack Polk and Douglas close together, with Baker not far behind. All three have overall ADPs in the double-digit rounds, meaning you could presumably backfill an otherwise strong WR corps with Polk and Douglas and hope that one breaks out. Still, I'm not at all sold and am steering clear.
As for tight end, Hunter Henry finally has the position for himself. Rookie Jaheim Bell is simply a depth piece. Henry was the TE15 in points per game last season and should be on the field enough to warrant top-18 consideration. Not good, but not horrible in 14- or even 12-team leagues with robust benches.
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