Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Jordan Love a top-10 QB?
2. Will Josh Jacobs return to form?
3. Who will be the #1 WR, and will he be a weekly starter?
4. Which of the other top 4 WRs are draftable?
5. Is Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft a top-14 TE?
Last summer's 32-in-32 column on the Packers began with "I'm a Jordan Love true believer." His QB21 ADP was ridiculous. My final rankings listed him at #129 overall compared to an overall-173 ADP. It seemed clear not because of anything quantitative -- my normal go-to evidence -- but rather for qualitative reasons.
Roster decisions often signal how teams view their personnel. Pretty obvious, but also not always factored into fantasy decisions, as we saw a year ago with Love. The newly appointed starter spent three years shadowing Aaron Rodgers, one of the all-time greats, just as Rodgers did 15+ years earlier re: Brett Favre. The Packers hadn't signed anyone notable to compete with Love. Instead, they did what few teams have ever done: loading up on receivers at the draft.
And yeah, plenty of teams have loaded up on receivers. But not like Green Bay did: Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed in the second round, Tucker Kraft in the third, Dontayvion Wicks in the fifth. All four guys broke through. It wasn't incidental. This franchise went all in on Love -- not merely by starting him with confidence, but by surrounding him with four talented rookies. And that didn't even include the 24-year-old Christian Watson and 23-year-old Romeo Doubs.
Six fantasy-relevant receivers on one team. All young. All capable. This team made sure Love had the resources needed to thrive.
Almost no one is doubting Love this season. His QB10 ADP makes sense, and he could certainly crack the top 6 if he and his teammates stay relatively healthy. For now I've got him as a bargain, drafting him about a round ahead of his overall ADP.
Ironically (but not really ironically), I'm fading every Green Bay wideout. It's a cluster, plain and simple. How can one accurately predict how the ball will be distributed to Reed (WR34 ADP), Watson (WR41 ADP), Doubs (WR55 ADP), and Wicks (WR58 ADP)? The market clearly agrees. Watson brings the most injury risk, but Reed doesn't necessarily bring the most upside. I've got Doubs as the biggest bargain with realistic top-40 potential, even if everyone's healthy. If I'm taking a flier at cost, I'm taking Doubs.
The backfield looks a lot different with Josh Jacobs at the top and rookie MarShawn Lloyd ahead of the fading A.J. Dillon. I was adamant all last summer that Jacobs was the biggest RB bust in fantasy, ranking him 65th overall compared to an overall-16 ADP. I'm somewhat comfortable drafting him at his RB12 ADP, primarily because Lloyd doesn't (yet) profile as a bell cow. Jacobs *should* earn 15+ touches a game, which in this offense should keep him firmly in weekly must-start territory.
Lloyd and Dillon are interesting. I can see them splitting touches if Jacobs goes down. Dillon was pretty solid until last season. The former second-round pick shouldn't be discarded in fantasy circles. There's a little too much space between his RB74 ADP and Lloyd's RB44 ADP. Not that I'm down on Lloyd. But if you draft Jacobs, I don't think it's enough to snag the rookie as a handcuff. Dillon needs to at least be on radars.
Meanwhile, Green Bay tight ends combined for a 77-1,252-4 receiving line in 2023. The problem, of course, is that the backup Kraft (TE34 ADP) demonstrated he can be a good starter when Musgrave (TE16 ADP) is sidelined. A muscle tear is probably what's suppressing Kraft's market value. Musgrave is on track to be no less than the 1A TE in an above-average offense. Kraft is the better "bargain," but yeah, it's hard to imagine Kraft outproducing Musgrave unless the latter once again misses significant time.
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