Five Biggest Questions:
1. Could Bo Nix eventually be a streamer this season?
2. Will Javonte Williams be a top-30 RB?
3. Can Courtland Sutton be a top-40 WR?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is this the worst fantasy offense of the decade?
That last question could be swapped out for Greg Dulcich, but my point is clear. Rarely does a team not have a single player in ADP's overall top 90. Rarer still (I imagine) is that Denver has only two guys in the top 150. And the player with the third best ADP isn't even a starter. Oddsmakers are pegging the Broncos as one of the worst teams in 2024. No surprise why.
After whiffing on Paxton Lynch and Drew Lock (among others), and after going all in on Russell Wilson (and losing two first- and two second-round picks), the Broncos are hoping #12 overall selection Bo Nix can deliver the team's best QB season in a decade. Maybe not this year, but eventually, and by "eventually" I mean "really soon." His QB29 ADP makes sense on a weekly basis, with the understanding that a healthy Nix should start every game, making him a slight bargain for managers seeking consistent points (e.g. Best Ball).
A couple years ago I drafted Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. If one went down, the other would be a productive bell cow. "How can I lose," I wondered with no sense of irony. This backfield is at its most precarious heading into this season. Based on most metrics, Williams flopped last year compared to his pre-injury production. Heading into the final year of his rookie contract, he's a higher-than-normal benching or trade risk. Denver now has three intriguing backups. There is almost no scenario I can conceive of where Williams cracks the top 24. His RB33 ADP is a bit too ambitious, as that's a more realistic ceiling than floor.
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB48 ADP) is a little undervalued, assuming his usage ticks upward from 107 touches to 130-140. Wait-and-see rookie Audric Estime (RB64 ADP) and veteran Samaje Perine (RB72 ADP) are priced about right. We'll all know more by late August, at which point one of those backups might move up the charts as a co-handcuff alongside McLaughlin.
Courtland Sutton will turn 29 this season and symbolizes the occasional unfairness of the NFL, where some talented WRs never reach their potential due to bottom-tier QB play. Nix might not round into form until Sutton's 31 and (quite possibly) playing elsewhere. He had the second-most red-zone receiving yards last season and led the league with eight red-zone touchdowns. The TD regression risk is real. That said, his WR49 ADP is an over-correction. He should come off the board at least a round earlier.
The same goes for rookie Troy Franklin (WR78 ADP) and Marvin Mims (WR81 ADP). One of those two *should* carve out a #2 WR role, pushing them into the top 65. My vote's for Franklin, and we'll probably have a clearer answer by Week 2 or 3.
Finally, back to Dulcich. So much talent and potential if he can stay on the field. His TE40 ADP suggests the market doesn't trust his health, and for good reasons. The former third-round pick has played in only 12 contests in two seasons. But if you're in an incredibly deep league -- or one that includes generous TE bonuses, where the top 24-28 might come off the board -- then Dulcich needs to be rostered. And if he's good to go for Week 1, I'd move him from #30 (currently) to around #23-24.
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