Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Derek Carr crack the top 20?
2. Is Alvin Kamara a safe top-20 RB?
3. Are any other RBs draftable?
4. Is Chris Olave a top-10 WR?
5. Are any other WRs draftable?
Derek Carr has enjoyed a terrific career by nearly every sensible standard. He's been good enough to keep his job for 10 straight seasons, and should he remain atop the depth chart for these final three years of his contract, he could be top 30 or even top 25 in all-time QB starts.
Carr also is a good example of good player who's not a good in fantasy. That's not to say he's a bad fantasy option. But middling doesn't cut it, and Carr's had only one top-12 fantasy season . . . eight years ago when he was the QB11.
So while his QB27 ADP might seem harsh for a guy with good job security, his ceiling usually has been capped, and this year's Saints probably won't help him break through. Alvin Kamara turns 29 next week and began losing his legendary efficiency three years ago. The Kamara of 2017 could help Carr dramatically. The Kamara of 2024 probably won't be any better than last year's version, and presumably will be at least a little worse.
Meanwhile, the receiving corps lacks pop beyond budding superstar Chris Olave. The rest is a patchwork assemblage of non-top-50 talent. Is this franchise a buyer or seller? Hard to figure out. But in 2025 they're projected to have a least cap space (deep in the negative, to be clear) of any NFL team. They had only two of the first 149 picks in this year's draft. From the sidelines, it looks like they're merely running out the clock until 2027, when they'll finally have the financial breathing room to re-build -- ideally with Olave as a still-in-his-prime centerpiece.
There's not a lot to get excited about here. Carr is priced right, and even if he surprises managers and finishes in the top 18-20, he's still not draftable in most leagues. In fact, in Superflex I'd rather pair Russell Wilson with teammate Justin Fields (both with ADPs worse than Carr's).
Back to Kamara: his performance last year shocked me. I underestimated him. Will I make the same mistake? No, I have no idea how he'll do this season. Kamara's receptions and his team's lack of high-end talent make him a decent pick at his RB17 ADP. And last summer I didn't buy into the Kendre Miller or Jamaal Williams hype. Both were dart throws until Kamara returned. The same is true this year. A lack of strong backfield competition should keep Kamara in the top 22 as long as he's active.
Olave is my biggest Saints bargain, placing him as the #6 WR compared to a WR12 ADP. There's the potential for a CeeDee-Lamb-like spike, where he goes from "great" to "elite." However, I'm not comfortable with Rashid Shaheed's WR53 ADP, as A.T. Perry (WR93 ADP) is a much better value pick. I'd be surprised if Shaheed significantly outplays him.
And at tight end, can we get excited about Juwan Johnson? A little bit, as his TE28 ADP seems too low. Taysom Hill actually has a TE26 ADP. I'm leaning toward Johnson's more assured weekly usage. He averaged about 4.5 targets last season and should be in line for 5+ this year.
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