Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Russell Wilson or Justin Fields start more games, and will it matter?
2. Is it safe to assume Najee Harris should be drafted ahead of Jaylen Warren?
3. Is George Pickens a top-24 WR?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Can Pat Freiermuth finish in the top 14?
When referencing the secret construction of a second spaceship after the first one is destroyed in the movie "Contact," John Hurt's character says, "Why build one when you can have two at twice the price?"
This offseason, the Steelers hedged their bets and acquired two QBs at entirely different stages of their careers. Russell Wilson is the veteran who might be a year or two from retirement. Justin Fields is the former up-and-comer who's a decade younger than Wilson and still has time to find his footing. Either one might benefit dramatically from this change of scenery/personnel, and either one might flop.
Wilson has the inside track to start Week 1. But we've seen this movie before. If Wilson's best days are firmly behind him, as suspected, then he might merely be "adequate." They'll be on the road in Weeks 1 and 2 versus the Falcons and Broncos. The next three games are against the Chargers, Colts, and Cowboys. If they start out 2-3 and Wilson's struggling, will head coach Mike Tomlin make the switch? And/or might we see several plays each week designed for Fields, somewhat capping Wilson's ceiling?
My Pittsburgh QB rankings are largely irrelevant at the moment. The market is in the same boat. Wilson (QB30 ADP) and Fields (QB32 ADP) are dart throws, because there's no guarantee either will earn 10+ starts. Still, on a per-week basis, it's pretty clear either one would crush expectations. Rankings are based on season-long production. We all know that fantasy isn't played two-dimensionally. So drafting Wilson and Fields in Superflex and Best Ball is a brilliant move at their current values.
Similarly, I have Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren side-by-side, fairly similar to their ADPs (RB22 and RB25, respectively). The recently signed Cordarrelle Patterson revived his career in Atlanta in 2021 and 2022. Last season he showed his age, and now at 33 years old, Patterson (despite some public buzz) is a longshot to crack 40+ touches barring injuries to the co-lead backs.
The receiving corps interests me most, because the passing game has nowhere to go but up. Even a relatively weak Wilson/Fields would be better than anything this franchise has had for a while. Last season Pittsburgh tied for the fifth-fewest passing yards and the second-fewest passing TDs. They had the fewest passing TDs the year before. Two of last season's three most-targeted WRs (Diontae Johnson and Allen Robinson) are gone.
This leaves George Pickens (WR27 ADP) as a comfortable bargain, while rookie Roman Wilson (WR76 ADP) is a significant bargain. Tentatively I prefer Calvin Austin (WR122 ADP) over Van Jefferson (WR111 ADP) by a big margin, though neither is draftable unless thrust into a top-two WR role. To be clear, I'm advising managers to invest heavily in Pickens, with the understanding that his realistic floor is around his ADP. No clue if Wilson or Fields can help get him into the top 18. But for managers looking to lock in value, Pickens is one of the biggest no-brainer draft picks.
And Pat Freiermuth benefits from this relatively thin wideout corps. These last two Steeler seasons have instilled amnesia in many fantasy managers. Still only 25 years old, Freiermuth can and should build on the mini-magic of his rookie campaign, when he reeled in seven TDs on a healthy 79 targets. I mentioned Kyle Pitts' lack of targets the other day. On a smaller scale, the same can be said for Freiermuth, who averaged just under four looks per contest in 2023. He'll probably hit 5.5+ this year, making him a top-14 TE who should be drafted a little more than a round ahead of his overall-137 ADP.
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