Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Geno Smith return to near-weekly relevance?
2. Is Kenneth Walker a top-20 RB?
3. Will Zach Charbonnet command stand-alone value?
4. How big of a leap will Jaxon Smith-Njigba take?
5. Is Tyler Lockett a top-50 WR?
Wrote about this last year, and it's worth bringing up at least once each summer. Many ADPs are guided by the previous season's stats. Not surprising. Most of you probably are nodding politely and thinking, "Today's column isn't starting out well." But I bring it up because many managers fall into the trap of aligning their rankings too much with ADP . . . which are guided somewhat by last year's stats . . . which is my point.
Geno Smith's QB ADP is 22. Last year he was the QB23 in fantasy points per game. So yeah, not surprising. Now what are we going to do about it?
Some of you might be bullish about Smith at that price point, and I get it. He has a terrific receiving corps and a sub-par defense. He should have plenty of opportunities to air it out. But unlike some other top 18-28 QBs, Geno has (in my opinion) only a slim chance to crack the top 12. At his lights-out best in 2022, he was the QB11 in points per game. With a new head coach and new offensive coordinator, who knows, honestly. But in deep one-QB leagues and Superflex leagues, I want a lottery ticket in the 20's, not a journeyman with decent-to-fringe weekly startability.
I was big on Kenneth Walker last summer after his breakout rookie campaign. Turned out I was chasing points. A middling passing attack and a few too many negative game scripts didn't help. For example, in 2022 he had more fourth-quarter carries (64) than in any other frame, in a season when Seattle scored more points than they gave up. But last year he had fewer fourth-quarter carries (38) than in any other frame, in a season when Seattle's net scoring was negative 2.2 points per game.
Zach Charbonnet compounds the challenge, and although this is expected to be a run-friendly offense (barring a massive amount of negative game scripts), Walker's getting squeezed at a time when the former second-round pick -- on a different team -- might be a near-elite bell cow. This year I'm not anti-Walker at his RB15 ADP, but I am pro-Charbonnet at his RB41 ADP. The latter has a good shot at 150+ touches and probably should be valued closer to RB35.
The wideout situation is a big one to watch. Tyler Lockett's relevance took a huge hit last summer when the Seahawks drafted the can't-miss Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This year I don't see a non-injury scenario where Lockett outperforms the youngster. However, Lockett's ADP (WR52) remains close to JSN's (WR46). Why? Because in the big picture, Lockett averaged 3.1 more points per game than JSN did in 2023. But in their last seven games, Lockett averaged only 0.8 more points, compared to a 4.7-point advantage in their first 10 outings.
I believe JSN won't simply overtake the almost 32-year-old Lockett. I think JSN will vastly outperform him. That's why my rankings show JSN is a bargain, while Lockett's a fade. Meanwhile, Metcalf's priced about right at his WR21 ADP. In other words, if you want to bet on one Seattle WR, make it JSN.
Finally, the last time Seattle had a top-16 tight end was in 2017, and only twice since 2009 have they had a top-12 TE. It's hard to bet on a trend shift in 2024. The good news for Noah Fant (TE19 ADP) is his lack of competition. Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson are gone. A.J. Barner should claim the #2 job. But Fant's usage should increase. Will it matter? Probably not. He's a capable contributor who'd need double-digit scores to push for top-12 production. That's not a safe bet.
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