Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Anthony Richardson finish in the top 5?
2. Can Jonathan Taylor finish in the top 5?
3. Is Michael Pittman Jr. a top-24 WR?
4. Will Josh Downs secure top-45 value?
5. Is Adonai Mitchell draftable?
The hype surrounding Anthony Richardson is off the charts, and who am I to question it. In the four seasons following Andrew Luck's sudden retirement in August 2019, Indy seemed to be one "great" QB away from a playoff berth at minimum and a legit Super Bowl run at most. Yes, that includes the disastrous 4-12-1 campaign in 2022, when the team lost six times by a touchdown or less despite having arguably the league's worst collection of quarterbacks.
Not known (yet) for his passing prowess (though he has a big arm, it's still rounding into NFL form), Richardson crushed expectations in what amounted to less than three full games. His 18.2 fantasy points per contest actually understate his true output, because it's based on four starts. The real numbers are closer to 24.2 points per contest. Obviously, that would make him an elite QB heading into Year 2.
But his QB ADP is 5, and I've got him ranked at #6. Why? Maybe durability is a question mark. Maybe because none of his four opponents were top 10 defenses (based on points surrendered). Maybe because Jonathan Taylor had only one touch before Richardson was knocked out for the season, and it's unclear what impacted JT might have -- especially near the goal line -- when this tandem is on the field at the same time.
For now, Richardson should be viewed as one of the highest-upside quarterbacks with higher-than-average risks. Ambitious managers might reach a round early to see if they hit the lottery. The rest (me probably included) should feel comfortable knowing there are plenty of great options in the top 6-10 range (e.g. C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott) if Richardson leaves the board ahead of his overall-58 ADP.
Back to JT: what a fascinating situation for a former dynasty god. He was still only 22 years old when completing his historically exceptional 2021 campaign. It also marked his fourth 300+ touch season in the previous five years, dating back to his breakout season as a Wisconsin freshman. He's missed 13 contests in the two years since, with a significant (for him) downturn in efficiency. Can he return to greatness?
Yes, I believe he can and will, and the market agrees. We both have him as the RB5. I'm bullish for many reasons, including a lack of clear-cut backfield competition and a stout offensive line returning all five starters. In 2023, Taylor's yards-after-first-contact and broken-tackle rate were the second-best of his career. But he netted an anemic 1.7 yards-before-first-contact, about one full yard off his career average. That's a correctable outlier, especially with Richardson returning over the departed Gardner Minshew. As long as the Colts are comfortable feeding Taylor even moderately heavily in the first year of a three-year contract (265+ touches seems entirely doable), then he can return to eliteness in this dynamic offense.
The receiving game concerns me, as Richardson is still in the prove-it phase of his development. In two full Richardson games, Michael Pittman Jr. excelled and then flopped. These were among rookie Josh Downs' first games. Again, Taylor was out. Pittman was the alpha. While it's a very small sample size, Pittman was the WR15 in points per game in part because Minshew averaged 34.7 throws per game. Almost assuredly, Richardson won't come close to that clip. And now Pittman has extra competition with a presumably ascending Downs (WR62 ADP) and second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell (WR61 ADP).
I've got Pittman as a fade and Mitchell as a bargain, while Downs is priced about right. All three guys are under contract until at least early 2027. It'll be a fascinating three years.
At tight end, I want to believe Jelani Woods can bust out. But I've thought that before. The Colts' offense has rotated in TEs for years. I can't justify drafting Woods as a top-24 TE with so many more reliable options on the table.
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