Five Biggest Questions:
1. Who will win the QB battle, and will it matter?
2. Can Aaron Jones be trusted as a top-20 RB?
3. Can Ty Chandler secure weekly streaming value?
4. Is Jordan Addison a weekly streamer?
5. Should managers roll the dice on T.J. Hockenson?
One tough thing about dynasty -- at least in football -- is how dependent WRs (and often TEs) are on their QB, and vice versa. It's the ultimate fantasy symbiotic relationship. Of course, there are degrees of impact. A slight downgrade at QB probably won't move the needle. A medium-sized downgrade might. A huge downgrade can be devastating.
The situation in Minnesota, then, is one of the biggest ones to watch in September. Can J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold be better than Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall? Yes, probably. Can they feed more than two of their four proven playmakers each week? That's the question.
I'll go on record as saying Darnold might be the best QB bust of the past decade. Who can blame him for flopping in his first three seasons, when his teammates included post-prime Le'Veon Bell, 37-year-old Frank Gore, and a collection of declining or never-ascended receivers? He excelled in his first three outings in Carolina in 2021. Then CMC was knocked out, and Darnold (and the offense) never looked the same.
In Superflex, I'm happily buying Darnold at his QB34 ADP, which assumes he'll start around 6-8 games. Although listed behind McCarthy (QB31), I've got the veteran starting more games and -- when he does start -- posting top-24 numbers.
Can we still trust Aaron Jones? I was all in on him last summer before injuries ravaged his season. His dual-threat skills fit well with Darnold, who's never met a dump-off he hasn't liked (or something like that). I'm comfortable investing in Jones at his RB20 ADP. And I love Ty Chandler, ranking him as my RB35 despite an RB45 ADP. It's inconceivable that Minnesota will run Jones into the ground. Green Bay never did, and it likely extended his career.
So this might end up being a roughly two-to-one tandem with Jones averaging 13-14 touches and Chandler netting 7-8. Factor in the strong possibility that Chandler will earn at least a couple spot starts, and you're looking at around 150 touches. Tyjae Spears was the RB34 last season on just over 150 touches. Chandler surely could carve out stand-alone value in this offense.
Through the air, I can't justify taking Justin Jefferson at his WR4 ADP. Any games McCarthy starts would worry me, at least right now. And while Darnold is undervalued, I'm not seeing him as a top-16 QB. Jefferson should be "great" but not consistently elite, especially with an ascending Jordan Addison and the eventual return of T.J. Hockenson. Addison is my favorite value pick on this team, ranking him as the WR31 compared to a WR44 ADP. While his 10 receiving touchdowns inflated his stats, he could drop to five, replicate his catches and yards, and still finish around WR35 territory.
The rest of the WR corps is rough. Brandon Powell, Trent Sherfield, and Jalen Nailor are depth pieces. I can't conceive of drafting any of them. If one ascends to relevance, it likely would mean Jefferson and Addison are hurt.
Finally, last summer I ranked T.J. Hockenson as my TE2, 14 overall spots ahead of his 45 ADP. I drafted him half a round early with confidence. He dominated for much of the season, even after Kirk Cousins' injury. But his own injury ended some fantasy title hopes, and now we're left wondering if he'll be back for Week 1, or even by early October. And yet, I don't understand his TE17 / overall-152 ADP. Shouldn't he be taken before the 13th round in 12-team leagues, especially if you have an IR spot?
So yeah, I'm still bullish about Hock, but obviously based on new parameters. When healthy, he'll slot in as a weekly starter with elite or near-elite upside. In other words, Ignore Robert Tonyan, Josh Oliver, and Johnny Mundt for now. If one rises to the top next month, and if Hock's return remains this murky, then sure, maybe the Week 1 starter should be viewed as a top 20-22 TE. But that won't take managers very far.
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