Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Kirk Cousins be a top-14 QB?
2. Is Tyler Allgeier a fringe streamer?
3. Will Drake London be a top-10 WR?
4. Are Darnell Mooney and/or Rondale Moore draftable?
5. Can Kyle Pitts have a career year?
A quick reminder that if you want to face off against FF4W community members in the Premier Fantasy Football League --and if you're a dedicated fantasy footballer -- ping me. There are a few spots open as we close out the final 14-team division.
Yesterday's column was on a team with an elite RB, a would-be elite WR, and an aging QB with higher-than-normal injury risks. Today I'm focusing on the Jets' NFC doppelganger. Like New York, Atlanta is poised to deliver the fantasy goods for ambitious managers. At their best, Bijan Robinson and Drake London (and Kyle Pitts) can be season-long elite positional producers. How bullish should we feel?
It all starts with Kirk Cousins, who's recovering from a torn Achilles and now must content (potentially) with rookie Michael Penix Jr. When Green Bay drafted Jordan Love, he was a year-to-year insurance policy for whenever Aaron Rodgers left. But Atlanta's situation is different. Cousins just signed a huge contract, tying him to this team for (realistically) at least three seasons. Love took over his offense at age 24. If Cousins is healthy and at least "very good," then Penix might not take over until age 27 or 28.
For a team poised to take a huge step forward, the Falcons' selection of Penix with the #8 overall pick was . . . interesting. They could've snagged Rome Odunze (who went at #9), handing Cousins a dominant collection of four very young playmakers. So whatever we think of Cousins, Penix looms. And any health setback for the veteran could make things very -- again, "interesting." For now, though, I'm comfortable taking Cousins a little ahead of his QB18 ADP, because he should be a top-14 option as long as he's on the field. Superflex managers drafting Cousins need to reach many rounds early -- much earlier than normal for a backup QB -- to secure Penix.
The backfield is Bijan Robinson's, of course. He enjoyed 272 touches last season and probably will flirt with 300-320 this year. Nothing else needs to be said. He's elite, period. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier's 2022 rookie breakout is long past. The 12th RB taken two years ago was a fantasy playoff hero, averaging 18.3 points in Weeks 15-17. He also came through last year in Weeks 16 and 17. But his efficiency plummeted, as did (naturally) his touches. His RB52 ADP is acceptable and uninspiring. I'd rather pick up rookie Jase McClellan for pennies.
Through the air, Drake London is priced right at his WR8 ADP. I wouldn't go much higher for obvious reasons -- basically, he's a fantastic WR who hasn't yet put it all together. Cousins should help elevate him, and vice versa. But for the top five WRs this season, I want a proven track record. The rest of the WR corps is a minor mess. Some of you might recall my blunt assessment of Darnell Mooney the summer after his 2021 bust-out, when I wrote:
"Mooney thrived in ways that make him an undependable weekly fantasy starter heading into 2022. In addition to the aforementioned [Allen] Robinson struggles, Mooney was No. 11 in WR targets. That doesn't seem replicable this year. He also had the second-worst catch rate of any top-35 fantasy WR, in part because he had a whopping nine drops. He had drop problems in college, too. Yes, he's a big-play receiver. He was also made the de facto No. 1 WR on a team that lacked an adequate supporting cast. I'm fading him this summer. Please call me out this season if I'm wrong."
I'm fading Mooney at his WR67 ADP, in the belief that a good start for Atlanta will motivate them to trade for a better #2 WR. Barring that, I think Rondale Moore (WR90 ADP) has close to a 50/50 shot at out-producing Mooney, while Casey Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud are wait-and-see options depending on their preseason usage/effectiveness.
And finally, Pitts. A "unicorn" TE who's somehow only 23 years old entering his fourth NFL campaign. Travis Kelce was 24 before netting his first catch. Pitts can still become an all-time great. In dynasty I'd rank him top 3, and in re-draft he's, at worst, a slight (half-round) bargain at his TE6 ADP. He averaged only 5.3 targets per game last season. Cousins' former TE teammate T.J. Hockenson averaged 8.5. Ten TEs averaged 6.0+ targets. Do the math. In a more competent passing attack where Pitts averages even 5.0 targets (still too low), he'd be a near shoo-in for a 70-1,000-5 receiving line. So yeah, I'm all in.
---
Top 400 Preseason PPR Fantasy Rankings
(Donate-What-You-Want)
(1) Venmo -- https://www.venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- https://cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) Google Pay -- https://gpay.app.goo.gl/1hxqMf
(4) PayPal -- same e-mail as always: fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com
Extra Advice:
fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/ff4w-subscriptions.html