Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can we safely bet on Aaron Rodgers starting 12+ games?
2. Who will be Breece Hall's handcuff, and will it matter?
3. Is Garrett Wilson a safe near-elite WR?
4. Is Mike Williams a top-50 WR?
5. Are any other receivers fantasy relevant?
Subscribers to my rankings last summer knew my views on Aaron Rodgers -- that he was a "full fade" on draft day. No, I didn't expect him to tear his Achilles on his fourth offensive play of Week 1. But he'd already seemingly lost a step in his final year in Green Bay. At OTA's in May 2023, he strained his calf. Then he hurt his other calf in mid-August. He made sure the Jets added the low-ceiling Allen Lazard and nearly retired Randall Cobb. This was an extraordinarily top-heavy offense, led by an aging, post-prime quarterback.
And last month, Rodgers bailed on minicamp, blindsiding his coaches and teammates. A cynical person might wonder if a guy who's earned $75 million in guaranteed money for doing almost nothing is sufficiently motivated to deliver in 2024. While I'm not that cynical, his QB21 ADP is justified. When healthy, he should be able to crack the top 20 most weeks, thanks in large part to an elite core of playmakers. But his over/under on games played probably is around 11.5. He's the ultimate "draft him with a backup plan" in Superflex leagues.
Breece Hall (RB3 ADP) needs no introduction, and frankly, he doesn't need a conclusion. He's a young and talented bell cow, and these days that's enough to be a no-brainer RB selection. The far more interesting question is who will be his handcuff: rookie Braelon Allen or second-year-pro Israel Abanikanda. While smart money is on Allen, I've got both as bargains. Keep in mind that Abanikanda's letdown last season was due partly to bottom-tier QB play. The 21-year-old easily could rebound. But yeah, Allen appears to be far more valuable at this stage, and he might turn out to be one of the most valuable non-top-50 RBs in fantasy.
Meanwhile, your level of bullishness about Rodgers should match your level of bullishness about his wideouts. Once again, New York lacks a Plan B. Tyrod Taylor is capable, but certainly hasn't proven he can elevate his receivers. Any games Rodgers misses could be disastrous for all pass catchers not named Breece. So yes, I'm fine with Garrett Wilson's WR11 ADP, but I'm not excited to draft him there. Mike Williams is a reasonable buy at his WR60 ADP, though he's 50/50 to finish inside the top 50. Everyone else -- from Lazard to Malachi Corley to Xavier Gipson -- needs Rodgers to play at an MVP level. Barring that, it's hard any fringe player securing fantasy relevance, barring a serious injury at the top of the depth chart.
At tight end, I'm not touching Tyler Conklin at his TE21 ADP. A healthy Rodgers doesn't compensate for an improved WR corps, which should push Conklin further down the pecking order. And perhaps more importantly, I'm surprisingly high (relatively speaking) on Jeremy Ruckert, the 23-year-old former third-round draft pick who's waiting for an opportunity to shine. Conklin will be a free agent after this season. If the Jets aren't playoff contenders by December, we might see a lot more Ruckert. Dynasty managers should take notice.
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