For those of you competing for a title in Week 18, there are obviously two huge matchups today. Let's try to make sense of them.
First, since Baltimore is the only Saturday team with nothing to play for, I cannot think of any reason to roll with any of their starters, even if they're not declared inactive. This franchise already has been burned by offensive skill-player injuries these past three years. In 2021, they lost their top three running backs in the preseason. Lamar Jackson missed critically important chunks of his 2021 and 2022 campaigns. They've lost Mark Andrews, Dobbins, and Keaton Mitchell this season.
It seems like a no-brainer that Tyler Huntley, Melvin Gordon, and yes, Charlie Kolar could be the most involved. I include Kolar only because I'm not aware of any other healthy Baltimore TE besides Isaiah Likely, and they'll need to keep Likely on ice for the playoffs.
For the opposing Steelers, it might come down to how many defensive starters the Ravens sit. If this were any other week, Baltimore could largely shut down Pittsburgh's bottom-eight offense. So this is the wild card: Will Najee Harris and/or Jaylen Warren find paydirt against a D that's yielded only five rushing scores (by far the best in the league)?
It goes without saying that who's starting for Baltimore, as individuals they're playing for their careers. There won't be any "letting up." These guys are professionals, and they'll probably still play better than most defenses around the league. Still, if you're starting Harris or Warren, or if you're going with George Pickens or even Diontae Johnson, the good news is that that Steelers have a real shot at the playoffs if they beat Baltimore. So their starters will be engaged throughout, which isn't a bad situation if you're a befuddled Week 18 manager.
The nightcap is more straightforward: the Colts hosting the Texans. The winner clinches a playoff spot. It's that simple. For Indy, as always, Gardner Minshew should be serviceable, and with enough pop to make him a strong flyer if your normal #1 QB isn't playing this weekend. Houston's surrendered the sixth-most passing yards, but are tied with only 17 passing TDs surrendered. Their secondary has struggled with injuries, which helps explain the poor passing-yards stat. But there's an opening for Minshew to hit 16+ points.
Michael Pittman is an obvious start, as is Jonathan Taylor. Remember, in Week 18 two years ago, Indy collapsed against the anemic Jaguars. It was a crushing defeat in a what-might-have-been season. And yet, Pittman and Taylor did well in that game. The former collected a 6-64-1 receiving line. The latter picked up 15-77 on the ground and 3-18 through the air. It was more a Carson Wentz collapse than anything else. I expect that game to be fresh in the minds of the Colts' core.
The big question for me is whether we can trust Taylor. Houston's given up a stingy 3.3 yards per carry -- second-best in the NFL. And yet, they've also surrendered 18 rushing TDs (sixth-most). Confusing, I know. Assuming this game remains competitive, I believe Taylor will be leaned on heavily. However, his inexplicable drop in targets (only three in his last four games) is concerning. And if a returning Zack Moss gets even a handful of touches, it could doom Taylor as a TD-or-bust option.
For Houston, what a story. An incredible rebound for a franchise that hit rock bottom in 2020 . . . and then again in 2021 . . . and again in 2022. This is a good team that very well could become great next season.
From a fantasy perspective, C.J. Stroud's fantastic rookie campaign has been grinding to a halt the past three weeks. He's been facing more pressure -- a bad combination considering Indy has a great pass rush (fifth-most sacks). Still, if you've gotten this far with Stroud, given his surrounding talent, I'd be hard-pressed to rank him outside the top 12 in Week 18. Nico Collins is a must-start, of course. , but has given up the fourth-most rushing scores. And watch for veteran Dalton Schultz to step up; I love the TE's chances as a high-upside, TD-friendly presence, especially with WR Noah Brown out.
On the ground, it's still all about Devin Singletary. He's facing a defense that's given up the fourth-most rushing scores. He's been a key cog in Houston's revitalized offense, and he should get plenty of touches. What more could you want in a streaming RB?