My first six picks in this season's 14-team PFFL draft went almost exactly as I'd hoped. Picks seven thru 15 were atrocious. And then I landed Josh Downs with my final pick. And then I dropped him right before his four-game October outburst. Had I been remotely competent in the later rounds, I might've had a championship team instead of merely a playoff team.
But let's keep things positive. Those first six picks were CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Justin Herbert, T.J. Hockenson, Isiah Pacheco, and D'Andre Swift, producing the most balanced roster I've ever had in the opening six rounds. Normally I bail on at least one position until much later. Frequently that position is tight end.
I won the title two years ago with Mark Andrews, who I snagged with the 55th overall pick. Andrews had a TE5 ADP that summer. He fell in my lap. Couldn't resist. And he, more than any other player on my roster, was responsible for my success.
This past summer, Hockenson was #31 overall on my draft board, compared to an overall-45 ADP. He fell in my lap at pick #47. Again, couldn't resist.
Tight ends are fascinating investments, in ways QBs, RBs, and WRs are not. There's a high likelihood each season that one or more QBs will dominate, giving managers a nearly weekly competitive advantage. The same goes for RBs and WRs. There are great preseason debates around who these QBs, RBs, and WRs might be. But for the past 20-odd years, the most elite tight ends have been (barring injuries) fairly predictable. From the Tony Gonzalez - Antonio Gates - Jason Witten era, to the Rob Gronkowski - Jimmy Graham era, to the "Travis Kelce and everyone else" era, there's been considerable stability at the top.
This is important, obviously, because in leagues that start one TE, having the best can yield a massive weekly positional advantage. In 2020, Kelce hit 312.8 points. Darren Waller netted 278.6. Logan Thomas was #3 with . . . 176.6. That's a disparity you can take to the bank. Two years later, it happened again, with Kelce scoring 316.3 points. Hockenson was #2 with 215.4. If you drafted Kelce, you had a league winner. If you didn't, you might have been scrambling to catching up.
I lunged for Hockenson this past summer because I believed he'd be a top-two TE -- a weekly starter with a huge boom. And although he did well enough when healthy, in hindsight it wasn't worth it. In what I believe is unprecedented TE parity (at least this century), thru Week 17, the best TEs (Kelce and Hockenson) average 14.6 points per game. The 12th-best (Dalton Schultz) averages 10.1. Those who waited on TE and landed a top-12 option in a late round got a much better return than someone like me, who invested a fourth-rounder on a "stable" fantasy performer who cleared 13.8 points only four times.
After I took Hockenson, four of the next 11 picks were Breece Hall, James Cook, Rachaad White, and Alvin Kamara. In hindsight, I should've waited on tight end. But at the time, I thought Hockenson would not only be elite, but uber-elite.
Heading into 2024, we need to weigh this dilemma carefully. How confident are we that any tight end can hit 250+ points next season? And unlike the last 20 years, we seem to be entering a Wild West era where any of six or eight or even 10 TEs could claim the #1 spot.
This is why I can't wait to see how the market values this position. And going by points per game -- and pushing Hockenson aside as we wait to see when he'll return -- I'm betting that (in no particular order) Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, George Kittle, and David Njoku will occupy the top six spots. Of these six, Kelce's risks are obvious because of age, and also because I strongly believe the Chiefs will add an alpha receiver this offseason if they don't win the Super Bowl. Kelce's days as his team's most-targeted player might be over.
Meanwhile, Njoku took off only when Joe Flacco took over. Unless the Browns win the title with Flacco under center, we have to expect DeShaun Watson to assume starter's duties in Week 1, and I wouldn't feel comfortable over-investing in Njoku with that arrangement.
So for me, it comes down to this: Whoever has the TE1 or TE2 ADP, I'm probably fading them. The same probably goes for TE3 and TE4. There's too much clutter at the top and too many other guys who could realistically crack the top six and/or 200 points.
And who are those "other guys"? Consider an ascending talent like Dalton Kincaid (the TE14 in points per game). His ADP probably will be around TE12 next summer. I'd happily invest in him at that price. How about Kyle Pitts (TE16 in points per game)? Depending on how much Atlanta upgrades at quarterback, he could return to 2021 form (when he was the overall TE6 and the TE11 in points per game) or better. And if we could lock in Trey McBride or Cole Kmet after the first eight TEs are off the board, would that be a no-brainer?
As always, this isn't an exhaustive list. It's a starting point for determining an effective TE drafting strategy. I'm anticipating market confusion among the supposedly elite and near-elite TEs. And when there's confusion, we can capitalize by securing an under-the-radar, high-upside bargain.
Are you planning to pounce on an elite TE next summer? Or do you expect to fade that position until the later rounds? Looking forward to reading your thoughts.