We've touched on QBs and RBs -- trying to anticipate some of their ADPs this summer, and how that might influence whether we reach for some and fade others. Next up: wide receivers. Each of these past two seasons I've shared a little of my research re: which positions yield the highest single-week booms. These historical patterns have impacted how I draft and manage my team.
Each position carries risks and rewards. But even the best TEs generally don't crack 30+ points in a game. This year it's happened only three times. QBs cleared that mark 16 times this season, dispersed across 11 players. RBs also scored 30+ points 16 times, dispersed across 12 players.
But WRs are on another level. Yes, there are more WR starters per game, generating a larger universe of potential weekly stars. However, the biggest outputs generally are reserved for the top players. Whereas Daniel Jones and D'Onta Foreman can sneak in a 30-point day, big-boom WR performances usually are reserved for #1 or co-#1 wideouts. In all, 39 WRs scored 30+ points in a game this season, and nine more had between 28.9 and 29.7.
What CeeDee Lamb did in the fantasy playoffs reinforces the power of blisteringly effective wide receivers. While Kyren Williams was a fantasy hero with 20.3 points per game in Weeks 15-17, CeeDee averaged 28.0. Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 25.0. Both guys were listed as bargains (compared to their ADP) in my rankings.
Picking the right player at any position can be a differentiator. But I would argue that drafting three top-10 WRs has a bigger impact than drafting two top-10 RBs and a top-5 TE. Isiah Pacheco and Saquon Barkley are currently tied as the overall RB10s in points per game. Evan Engram is the TE5 in points per game. The #8, 9, and 10 WRs in points per game are Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, and Ja'Marr Chase. The choice -- at least to me -- seems clear.
Now, it's never that easy. But . . . those of you who started three weekly must-start WRs know how valuable they were. So the big questions (for me) are (1) which seemingly elite / near-elite wide receivers will be fades next summer, and (2) which non-top-20 WRs might break out, helping to lead managers to the title?
On the first question, Justin Jefferson suddenly holds some risk. If the Vikings lock up Kirk Cousins, then presumably Jefferson will have a top-four WR ADP. But if Minnesota lets Cousins go, then Jefferson's ADP realistically could fall outside the top 10. It all depends on who this team plans to put under center. And in the latter scenario, if the market doesn't adjust and keeps him squarely in the top 10, I'd likely fade him.
D.J. Moore is a fascinating fantasy player. I want to know if the Bears will snag Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft, and/or sign an instant-impact free agent, or else trade for an instant-impact starter. Because the best wideouts that Moore's played with during his career are Darnell Mooney, Terrace Marshall, the player formerly known as Robbie Anderson, and a young and underdeveloped Curtis Samuel. How will Moore fare if Chicago makes one or two meaningful upgrades? Can Justin Fields feed 3+ receivers per game (including sometimes Cole Kmet)? As it stands, I think Moore will be overvalued next summer -- possibly with a WR10 or WR11 ADP. If he's no longer the unquestioned weekly alpha, but rather an "alpha with much more competition," I'd fade him.
Among undervalued WRs, I'd be excited to draft overall WR45 Jaxon Smith-Njigba if he clocks in outside the ADP top 40. Tyler Lockett will turn 32 next September. Lockett is no doubt a fading star. When Russell Wilson targeted the veteran five years ago, the quarterback produced a perfect 158.3 QB rating. Yes, Lockett was that good. But since then, his quarterbacks have suffered steadily declining QB ratings each year, culminating in a dismal 82.7 mark this season.
And it can't be blamed solely on Geno Smith, who regressed after his incredible 2022 campaign. Because his rating when targeting D.K. Metcalf actually improved by 11.0 points year-over-year. We are witnessing (I believe) the dawn of JSN as the team's #2 WR, with Lockett dropping to #3. With more looks and continued growth, JSN should be a steal.
I'm also focused on what Buffalo does with Gabe Davis. Stefon Diggs will turn 31 in November, and Davis is headed toward free agency. There's no obvious replacement, though perhaps Khalil Shakir could step up. Still, if the Bills don't win it all, I'd expect them to go all in by adding a top-25 NFL wideout to help push them over the top in 2024. If Davis stays and no other significant receiver moves are made, it would be a sign that the franchise is invested in their #2. That's what I'd want to see in a WR who probably won't produce a top-40 WR ADP, but who could comfortably clear that mark if his target share improves even marginally.
Who are you planning to fade next season, and/or which below-the-radar WRs do you plan to target?