Next up, 2024 running backs. What ADPs might we anticipate for some notable RBs, and how might that impact our decision to reach or fade in the draft? Once again, points per game is a great indicator of how the market will value players. It's not perfect, because nothing's perfect. Age, usage, personnel shifts, etc. are medium-to-big factors. And the more we study this stuff, the easier it is to get pretty close to accurate.
Let's start with the top 20 RBs in points per game thru Week 17, starting at the top: CMC, Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara, Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, Travis Etienne, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Kenneth Walker.
Kamara and Mostert are fascinating. Betting that neither one will be top seven in ADP. Kamara is dominating largely because of his career-high 5.8 catches per game. For context, Breece Hall is #2 in the league with 4.6 per game. I think the market will recognize that heading into his age-29 season, his odds of another elite performance are almost assuredly less than 50/50. He's been barely middling on the ground while enduring his second consecutive season with an atrocious broken-tackle rate -- what was once one of his strengths. Jamaal Williams has been a disaster. Rookie Kendre Miller underwhelmed before getting hurt. The NFC South should remain wide open in 2024. Even if the Saints don't add another RB this offseason, I'm steering clear unless his ADP is outside the top 10.
As for Miami's backfield, I wrote this past July that "Achane has the best chance of starting during the fantasy playoffs, and that's where I'm putting my money." Had no expectation that the 31-year-old Mostert could stay healthy all year. But he did, right up until the end. That said, I'd be shocked if the veteran's ADP landed in the top 14. The presence of Achane doesn't help. In fact, Achane might be ranked ahead of him and certainly deserves to be. Mostert is an incredibly talented, efficient runner who happened to score 21 times. Two-thirds of those TDs came from inside the five-yard line.
Age is not on his side. He's earned a career-high 234 touches (which could grow to 260-280 or more in the playoffs). I can't confidently invest in a 32-year-old RB, no matter how productive he is.
Also, watch for how the market values the Lions' backfield. Presumably, Gibbs will be ahead of Montgomery, though I can't imagine they'll be separated by more than four or five spots. At a time when receptions are key for strong RB floors, Montgomery's trend line points downward. From 2020 thru 2022 he averaged 3.0 catches for 24.0 yards per contest. This year? 1.2 for 9.0 yards. An improved offense helps, and he's been one of the league's most consistently "tough" (based on broken-tackle rate) runners since getting drafted in 2019. I'd expect Gibbs' numbers to inch upward at Montgomery's expense. If the former is somehow outside the top 10, I'm buying. If the latter is inside the top 12, I'm fading.
How about some of this year's underperformers, and where they might stack up? Honestly, I'm at a loss here. So much hinges on what each team does these next few months. Derrick Henry will turn 30 tomorrow, and as most of you know, Tyjae Spears was one of my three favorite bargain handcuffs this past summer. And as I've shared before, the Titans might decide to unload and start rebuilding, with Henry being a prime trade candidate.
So yeah, it's too soon to know how the Henry-Spears dynamic will shake out. If there's still teammates by June, I think Henry's ADP will be around RB14-16, on the assumption he handles most of the goal-line work and earns a 250-touch pace, while Spears will clock in around RB28-34, signaling the possibility of at least a couple spot starts.
In Denver, what a mess. Samaje Perine's ceiling seems capped, so only deep-leaguers need to keep him on radars. More pointedly, the formerly dynamic Javonte Williams looked post-prime for most of this season--his first after suffering ACL and LCL tears 14 months ago. He's still only 23 years old, so we could see a more polished Williams in 2024. But the Broncos currently don't have a top-26 NFL quarterback queued up for next season. Although their offense improved this year (17th in scoring versus last in scoring in 2022), this doesn't have the look of an ascending franchise. And rookie Jaleel McLaughlin delivered when given the opportunity.
Speaking of McLaughlin, he had 1,316 college touches. Consulted my RB college workload spreadsheet, which contains data on all 732 running backs who've entered the league since 2000 (excluding undrafted free agent who've never earned a touch--typically practice-squad fodder). Only a few RBs have collected more than 1,110 college touches, and only one has accrued more: 2008 sixth-rounder Xavier Omon (1,319).
With rare exceptions (Cedric Benson, for example), 1,100-touch college RBs have short NFL shelf lives. McLaughlin is a fascinating dart throw in what should be a non-top-50 RB ADP. But . . . dynasty managers should be prepared to sell high if he takes on a bigger role next season.