Today is all about 2024 quarterbacks: which ones we think will be drastically overvalued (based on market-based average draft position), and which ones we think will be drastically undervalued. This is all about anticipating how the market will land on various players, so that we're not swept up in the hype next summer.
Here's a fun fact to get started: I just did a little experiment, looking up the top 10 overall QB scorers 10 seasons ago. They were (starting at #1) Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and Tony Romo. Heading into the following season, the ADP QB1 was Peyton, followed by Brees, Aaron Rodgers (who'd missed seven games), Matthew Stafford, Luck, Tom Brady, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Robert Griffin III.
So the top four scorers from 2013 were in the top 10 in QB ADP the following summer. But only one of the top 5-thru-10 scorers were in the top 10. No one knew if the relatively youthful Dalton, Wilson, and Kaepernick were ascending talents. The 33-year-old Rivers was coming off a career year. And so on.
Now let's order them by 2013 fantasy points per game (rather than overall): Peyton, Brees, Foles, Rodgers, Cam, Luck, Dalton, Rivers, Stafford, Romo. Each of the top six QBs were in the top 10 in ADP the following summer, plus Stafford. So, a slightly more accurate indicator of how the market will assess value.
Fast-forward to 2022. Of the top-10 overall QB scorers, six ended up in the top 10 in QB ADP the following summer. Based on points-per-game . . . well, it was also six, though with the caveat the Kyler Murray (#7 in points per game) might have been ranked in the top 10 if he hadn't been expected to miss a chunk of the season. And in case you're wondering (because I was wondering, so I checked), in 2021, eight of the top-10 overall QB scorers ended up in the top 10 in ADP that next summer, compared to nine of the top-10 QBs in points per game.
What I've found over the years is that this is pretty typical. If you want to predict top player ADPs, points-per-game is a slightly more accurate approach than overall scoring, making it a pretty good starting point for assessing market values.
OK, so where does that leave us ahead of 2024? Josh Allen probably will have the overall QB1 ADP. He's about to hit 100+ rushing attempts for the fifth straight season, and he's turning 28 in May. I've found that most dual-threat QBs hit a massive point-of-no-return decline, on average, around age 32-33. Some fall off as early as 29 or 30. The point is, Allen *should* be fine for 2024.
But there doesn't seem to be a clear-cut #1 QB these days. Maybe you disagree. If the Chiefs add another big-play receiver (I'm betting my living room couch that they will), then Patrick Mahomes should get back on track. Lamar Jackson is an obvious possibility. If the Bears go all in on Justin Fields in the draft by adding, say, Marvin Harrison Jr. while also making a splash signing in free agency, then even Fields -- who only last year was the QB6 -- could make a big push for #1.
In fact, last season 29.9% of Allen's fantasy production came on the ground. This year? 36.7%, thanks largely to 15 rushing scores. To me, a lot has to go right for him to be #1 again. I wouldn't feel motivated to reach early for him, because he'll probably be priced around his peak potential.
Another fascinating name is Jordan Love. This past summer I wrote a *lot* about how painfully undervalued he was at his overall 173 ADP. My rankings placed him 44 spots better. My belief was that the Packers had every opportunity to add a QB in the draft the last couple years. Instead, they went all in at WR and TE, giving Love enough resources to do plenty of damage. He's currently the QB6 in points per game. I *believe* the market won't be sold on him. His opening ADP probably will be around QB11 or QB12. If I'm right, then there's a clear buying opportunity. But if I'm wrong and his ADP is in the top seven, then I'd feel nervous.
Then there's Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence. Both are currently tied as the QB18 in points per game. Simply incredible. These results can be explained, just like all results can be explained. The question is whether they're sharp rebound candidates. Because I expect their 2024 ADPs to fall right around Love's in the 9-to-13 range. Lawrence's stock probably can't go much lower, and I'd expect him to be ranked behind Tua, and probably behind Love, making him a nothing-to-lose later-round pick. The luster is gone from Lawrence. But he'll begin next season at only 24 years old. Talent often wins in the end.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on these or any other QBs who might be worth targeting or fading in next season's draft.