The top 10 WRs in fantasy points per game are (starting from the top) Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Nico Collins.
What jumps out here? This is what jumps out to me: Tua Tagovailoa hasn't missed a game this season. Neither have Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott. Kirk Cousins was at the helm for all of Jefferson's games. Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts have played every contest. So have Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud.
Of the top 10 WRs in points per game, only Chase is the outlier. But he's not much of an outlier, because in 10 Joe Burrow starts, Chase averaged just shy of 19 points per game, keeping him in the top 10.
Naturally, this isn't a coincidence. A #1 WR should do plenty of damage if he works with at least a half-decent QB. We know inherently that *most* backup QBs can't elevate #1 WRs the way most starters can. And it's a reminder that preseason injury-prone QBs should generate at least moderate yellow flags for their #1 WR, and that teams with decent backups QBs (like Gardner Minshew in Indy) should translate into higher floors for their #1 WR.
I think many of us might have guessed this was the case. But seeing the numbers laid out so clearly reinforces, statistically, that when we draft a #1 WR, we're banking on two injury-free seasons -- one for the WR, and the other for his QB. So drafting WR-WR in the first two rounds is a bet on four guys staying healthy: two WRs and each of their QBs.
I drafted CeeDee and DeVonta Smith in the first two rounds. It's worked out. If you drafted Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams early, it hasn't worked out as well. Not your fault. But this is why, at least to me, a "no-RB" strategy in a vacuum isn't necessarily the best play. Essentially, there are risks no matter how you slice it.
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For most of yesterday, Jaguars injury news wasn't great for managers invested in most of their skill players. But in the evening, it was reported that Trevor Lawrence wasn't yet ruled out for this coming weekend. The fact that he *might* play is astounding, given how high-ankle sprains frequently sideline players for multiple weeks.
With a mere one-game lead in the AFC South, Jacksonville is in a tough position. They're still within earshot of a top-two seed, but they'll need to topple Baltimore in two weeks to have a chance. That's why I think they'll hold Lawrence out against Cleveland, so he'll have a better shot at being close to 100% the week after. But we'll see what happens.
Meanwhile, Christian Kirk probably will have surgery, though even that's not confirmed. I still wouldn't overcommit to Parker Washington. As pointed out yesterday, a lot had to go "wrong" Monday night for Washington to step up. I see him more in a Zay Jones light than in a Kirk light. In other words, while he might be a suitable deep-league streamer, we shouldn't be surprised if his next outing ends with something like a 3-23-0 line.