This summer, what would have shocked people more: that the Browns would be 10-5, or that nearly retired free agent Joe Flacco would play about as well as (or better than) Deshaun Watson?
It's hard to imagine Cleveland making the playoffs if Cleveland had stuck with Dorian Thompson-Robinson or P.J. Walker. Those two backups combined for two TDs and nine interceptions. While Damar Hamlin began this season as the clear favorite for Comeback Player of the Year (and while his huge emotional impact cannot be measured), Flacco is oh-so-close to demonstrating he deserves a starting gig -- somewhere -- in 2024.
The bad news for this franchise is that they have only a miniscule shot at winning the AFC North, meaning their best realistic playoff positioning is the 5 seed. That would put them on the road in the opening round against the AFC South or AFC West winner. Doable? Sure. But for this team to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, they'll need to run the gauntlet away from home.
And yet, they have one of the league's best defenses, yielding the fewest passing yards on the lowest QB completion percentage. They're top 10 in sacks and QB hits, and they're tied for third with 16 picks. And on offense, they have a quarterback with a Super Bowl title in his back pocket, as well as a strong cast of playmakers on the ground and through the air.
They can beat the Jets on the ground, and I expect they'll try. New York's D has seen 468 rushing attempts -- second-most in the league. They've seen only 463 passes -- the fifth fewest, right behind the Browns. Opponents have consistently run on the Jets and more often than not have prevailed. What Cleveland's backfield lacks in efficiency, they make up for in versatility. After securing only 16 touches on Sunday, Jerome Ford should be primed for a heavy workload, and I would start him with relative confidence. Kareem Hunt cannot be trusted, as his groin injury appears to have slowed him down in recent weeks. That said, Hunt has been TD-or-bust all year, so nothing new heading into this matchup.
Through the air, talent can overcome Sauce Gardner and the Jets' fierce secondary. Jaylen Waddle managed an 8-142-1 receiving line with Tyreek Hill sidelined two weeks ago. Hill hit 9-102-1 a few weeks earlier against them. However, that hasn't been the norm. It's highly possible that Amari Cooper will follow up his blistering Week 16 performance with something between a clunker and 12 points.
Fantasy managers with David Njoku might rejoice, at least somewhat. The Jets have given up seven TDs to opposing tight ends. If Cooper's shut down, we could easily see Njoku and even Elijah Moore crack 10 points apiece.
But again, I expect Cleveland to try to steamroll their opponents on the ground. Flacco probably will operate more as a game manager, and if the Browns jump out to a decent lead by halftime, we might even see Pierre Strong in the second half as Cleveland shifts to an even more conservative game plan. Win, stay healthy, and clinch a playoff berth.
For the Jets, I was publicly all in on Breece Hall last week against a deflated Washington team. Tonight, not so much. While Hall's 12 catches on Sunday made managers swoon (or nod their heads approvingly), we can't realistically anticipate more of the same. Cleveland's given up the eighth-fewest RB catches and only nine total RB scores. Hall has a great floor, but a pretty rough ceiling. If I had to guess, I'd bet on 40-45 yards on the ground and a 6-25-0 line through the air. He's startable, but not in a thrilling sort of way.
The rest of the Jets' offense can be summed up with two names: Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin. This is one of the NFL's most top-heavy receiving corps. If you have Wilson, you almost have to start him. Trevor Siemian threw almost 50 passes last week. He might attempt 40+ tonight. Hall, Wilson, and Conklin have accounted for 63% of all Jets targets this year. If you want volume with the hope of one or two big plays, you could do worse.
Final score prediction: Browns win 22-9. This is the last final-score contest of the season, so please bring your A game.