Two top-heavy offenses delivered for many fantasy managers last night, while Puka Nacua took a big step toward breaking the all-time rookie receiving-yards record. Demarcus Robinson extended his scoring stream to four straight games. His first target didn't come until Week 9, a couple of weeks after being robbed at gunpoint. What a remarkable run for the 29-year-old receiver, whose impact somehow seems to grow with age.
Kyren Williams dominated yet again. (32 touches on Sunday? No problem.) Cooper Kupp was the odd man out despite his team-high 12 targets. If you win despite his moderate letdown, have faith heading into next week against the Giants. And I guessed 14-19 points for Matthew Stafford, and he came through with about 21. Had the Rams not jumped out to such a big lead in the third quarter, he probably would have hit 25+.
For New Orleans, Chris Olave delivered, though I was surprised that the Saints' touchdowns went through Rashid Shaheed, A.T. Perry, and Juwan Johnson. Was anticipating that one of those three *might* score. But guessing which one seemed like a crapshoot. Shaheed entered the game with more than five targets in only one of his previous five matchups. Johnson hadn't topped three targets in any of his previous three outings. Perry remains a little-used, boom-bust WR. It was simply one of those nights.
It also didn't help (or did help if you started one of those receivers) that Alvin Kamara stumbled. He'd posted must-start numbers in all but one of his other games. A rough break for managers who got this far with a more vintage Kamara, only to see him wilt in a critically important week.
For the closest-score competition, I think I had it sewn up (guessing 29-13) until Derek Carr's late touchdown. That elevated Jay Harper (31-24) and Robert Larson (31-20) to the winners' circle. Congrats to both of them.
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Tomorrow I'll walk through what I think is the likeliest game script for each Saturday matchup, and how that should impact fantasy production. In the meantime, here's the biggest fantasy storyline (and/or major question mark) for each Sunday team.
Colts (+2.5) at Falcons -- Picking Indy to win. Will Bijan Robinson be turned loose in the first of (probably) three consecutive elimination games for Atlanta? And if Jonathan Taylor returns, will we see the game-breaking greatness he's exhibited only twice this year?
Seahawks (-3) at Titans -- Last weekend, Kenneth Walker scored on the ground for the first time since Week 6. But now he's questionable. If he's a go, can he be trusted? If he sits, can Zach Charbonnet be trusted? And with Ryan Tannehill back under center, can we fully trust DeAndre Hopkins, who's hit 11+ points in four games where he's scored, but hasn't hit 11+ in eight of 10 games where he hasn't scored?
Lions (+3) at Vikings -- Detroit should take this one, though Nick Mullens clearly is the wild card. He has all the playmakers he needs to thrive. Can he be trusted as a top-12 QB? As for the Lions, the same question re: Jared Goff, who's coming off a blistering five-TD performance. But before last week, he had 10 passing TDs and seven picks in his previous seven games.
Jets (-3) vs. Commanders -- A last gasp (almost) for the underwhelming Jets. Will Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall close out strong? Research I conducted earlier this week shows that teams coming off shutouts have a noticeable bump in their next game, especially when they're at home. And for Washington, Sam Howell might be playing for a starting job in 2024, as strange as that sounds. Can he feed more than one receiver on Sunday?
Packers (-4.5) at Panthers -- Can any manager trust Aaron Jones, especially with A.J. Dillon returning? And will Chuba continue to almost literally carry one of the league's worst offenses?
Texans (+2.5) vs. Browns -- Injuries have marred Houston's season on offense and defense. But they remain in the hunt. Can Noah Brown deliver yet again? For Cleveland, the same question for Joe Flacco. I've been on his bandwagon, but am now jumping off versus a bend-rarely-break Houston defense that's yielding the fewest passing TDs.
Buccaneers (-1) vs. Jaguars -- With Trevor Lawrence questionable, this point spread could change dramatically. But as much as I poo-poo'd Baker Mayfield and Rachaad White this summer, I welcome defeat with open arms. Managers who invested in the Bucs on the cheap are probably flying high. Now the question is whether Mayfield (who's scored only half a point less than Tua Tagovailoa) is a must-start in Week 16. And for Jacksonville, while it's hard to bet against Travis Etienne, it's hard to ignore how much he's slowed down in the second half of this season.
Bears (-4) vs. Cardinals -- Eyeing a 10+ point Chicago victory. Their biggest question mark remains their backfield, and I still believe Roschon Johnson will outscore his RB teammates. For Arizona, can James Conner be trusted as the bell cow for a team going nowhere? Or will this franchise get a closer look at Emari Demercado and/or Michael Carter ahead of 2024, which would make Conner a highly risky play?
Cowboys (+1.5) at Dolphins -- A Super Bowl preview? Although Tyreek Hill missed last week, his public push for a 2,000-yard season has to factor into managers' thinking. He needs 153 yards per game down the stretch. A longshot, but doable. If he's good to go, he could see 15+ targets -- a sign that he and Tua are locked into Cheetah reaching the all-time single-season record. Meanwhile, are Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle both startable, or will Pollard seize a more outsized role?
Broncos (-6.5) vs. Patriots -- Predicting a 26-6 Denver victory. All eyes could/should be on Javonte Williams and Zeke Elliott. Both are fringe starters. Both get consistent usage in the passing game. And both easily could be capped at 40 scoreless rushing yards apiece.
Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders -- How will K.C.'s backfield shake out with CEH getting some constructive run in Isiah Pacheco's absence? And the same question re: Vegas's backfield is Josh Jacobs returns after Zamir White's recent breakthrough.
Eagles (-12) vs. Giants -- Some have called the 10-4 Eagles frauds. If you're a manager rostering any of their big-name players, you should be thrilled. I expect Philly to post 36+ in this one. The biggest question for me is whether D'Andre Swift is unstartable in many leagues. And will the Giants run Saquon Barkley heavily? Or will they finally see what they have in rookie Eric Gray?
49ers (-4.5) vs. Ravens -- Another Super Bowl preview? Keep a close eye on CMC, as always. 301 touches, and he could hit 460+ if they reach the title game. For Baltimore, with Keaton Mitchell on injured reserve, Gus Edwards could be a fantasy hero . . . or a TD-dependent RB who burns a lot of managers.