The last time two 7-7 teams faced off (2021), the Raiders defeated the Broncos to keep their playoff hopes alive. It was the second of four straight defeats for Denver and the second of four straight victories for Vegas, which went on to nearly defeat the eventual Super Bowl-bound Bengals in the opening round of the playoffs, when Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs reached Cincy's red zone in five of their final six possessions -- but came away with only one TD and three field goals on those drives.
Tonight we'll see two more 7-7 teams, both fighting for a postseason bid. The Rams have it a bit tougher road, as the best they can hope for is a 6 seed. And they'll have to face the Niners in Week 18. Given the fierce fight for the top two NFC seeds, San Francisco probably will be compelled to play their starters. Essentially, L.A. needs to win tonight, or else an 8-9 finish (at best) would be likely.
That said, what a story for a franchise that defeated Cincy in the title game two years ago, and then appeared to be in utter turmoil a year later. Entering this season, Kyren Williams' fantasy RB ADP was 81. Yes, 81. Puka Nacua's WR ADP was 101. Yes, 101.
I had Williams as the RB70 and Nacua as the WR86, so yes, they were "bargains." But not good enough to draft in most leagues. And I devoted a full column to warning against Nacua in September. A disastrously bad call based on a misguided belief that Matthew Stafford is post-prime and highly injury prone.
Instead, with Cooper Kupp back to his old healthy self, the Rams are on a roll, winners of four of their last five games while averaging 33 points in their last four outings. For context, before this run, they'd scored 32+ points in only one regular season game since Week 13 of 2021.
They're facing a Saints defense that looks great on paper: sixth-fewest points, fifth-fewest passing yards, second-lowest QB completion percentage, etc. But . . . they're beatable, surrendering a healthy 4.5 yards while producing the fifth-fewest sacks and fourth-fewest QB hits. This is key for Stafford, who's enjoying his second-lowest sack rate (sacks per pass attempt) in his last 10 seasons. The veteran QB has averaged 2.7 sacks in losses and 1.3 in wins. If this Saints squad can't put sufficient pressure on Stafford, then the Rams could have their way on offense.
I expect Williams and Kupp to remain must-starts, and for Nacua to remain viable in deeper leaguers, even if he doesn't score. Nothing unexpected here, though managers should consider that Williams earned 32 touches on Sunday. That's a clear yellow flag based on historical data. However, I don't expect him to revert to a timeshare with Royce Freeman. That said, I'd expect Williams' efficiency to plummet, making him a better bet for 80-100 total yards than 140+.
Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Higbee are TD-dependent, and against a D yielding only 16 passing scores (tied for the sixth fewest), "TD-dependent" isn't what managers need or want in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Stafford is a fringe starter, damaged in part by Williams' dominance near the goal line; all eight of his rushing scores have come inside the seven-yard line, with his last two coming at the one. Great running games help sustain drives, but they can also turn otherwise productive QBs into game managers from a fantasy perspective.
For the Saints, a lot has to go right to keep pace tonight. And don't let their previous two games skew reality. They beat up on the Giants and Panthers at home. Great. And they can lose tonight and still (probably) control their postseason destiny with wins over the Bucs and Falcons to wrap up the season. Tonight is critically important, but it's not the end-all-be-all for a franchise trying to eke into the playoffs.
As always, the offense will largely run through Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. Both are startable, essentially because their ceilings are too high to ignore. Beyond that, all bets are off. I expect Derek Carr to regress after pummeling the Giants, while Juwan Johnson (and yes, Jimmy Graham) probably have to score to crack eight points. As for Taysom Hill, who knows. His targets have been dropping, and his usage on the ground is all over the place. Although he probably has the best upside of any "TE" playing tonight, he also has a really bad floor.
Final score prediction: Rams win 29-13. Leave your prediction below, so that you don't regret *not* leaving a prediction when the season's over.