Two huge games on today's docket. Let's walk through what I think is the likeliest game script for each, and how that could impact fantasy production for 20+ players.
In the opener, the 7-7 Steelers host the 8-6 Bengals. It's been 20 years since Pittsburgh has finished below .500. That occurred in 2003 during the oh-so-brief Tommy Maddox era, which featured Jerome Bettis, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, and Plaxico Burress on offense. The Steelers' poor record garnered them the #9 overall pick in the following draft, which netted them Ben Roethlisberger. Two years later -- in Maddox's final NFL season -- Big Ben, Bettis, Ward, and Randle El helped lead the franchise to their first Super Bowl title in 26 years.
But that Steelers mini-dynasty has almost no connection to this year's squad, which is now on quarterback #3, and which has scored the NFL's fifth-fewest points.
I don't expect 28-year-old Mason Rudolph to play the hero. And he might not have to with Cincy's missing Ja'Marr Chase, because Pittsburgh's D is good enough to limit the damage. While Jake Browning and Joe Mixon have come on strong in recent weeks, they were mostly stymied when these teams last met -- back when Chase was active and Tee Higgins was on the shelf. In that game, Pittsburgh had offensive possession for about 62% of the game, with Pat Freiermuth going off for 9-120 on 11 targets.
Although the Bengals likely will make adjustments on defense, we should expect plenty of work from Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against a D surrendering 4.7 yards per carry. Of course, Najee and Warren are as TD-dependent as ever, especially with the former catching only six balls in the last five games, and the latter not finding the end zone in the last four. Both are "start-and-hope" RBs. Joe Mixon is the safest running back because of more assured volume, while Chase Brown is once again a PPR dart throw -- a better investment in dynasty than in the fantasy playoffs at the moment.
Through the air, it's tempting to bet on Freiermuth again. In his last start (in 2021), Rudolph targeted him nine times. In his previous start (in 2020), Rudolph targeted Vance McDonald six times, in what turned out to be McDonald's final NFL appearance. Before that Week 17 contest, McDonald hadn't earned more than three targets in a year. And in Rudolph's previous full game (in 2019), he targeted McDonald seven times.
So it's fair to assume that Pittsburgh's third-string veteran QB leans on his tight ends, and that Freiermuth should be viewed as his team's safest bet for 9+ fantasy points. Who knows whether George Pickens or Diontae Johnson can break through. But if you have a decent double-digit option playing later, I'd wait.
For the Bengals, Tanner Hudson continues to be a fringe streamer, and I'd expect either Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd to hit 12+. Higgins of course has the edge. Boyd's advanced metrics are way down this year, and while Joe Burrow's absence is one reason why, he had only one fantasy-relevant game even while serving as the #2 WR with Higgins out.
The nightcap seems more clear-cut, with the surging Bills visiting the physically and seemingly emotionally depleted Chargers. Buffalo's favored by 12.5 points, and I expect them to win by 20+. All the usual high-impact Bills should thrive, from Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs to James Cook. If Dalton Kincaid is good to go, I'd fire him up as a top-12 option. Gabe Davis is the same TD-dependent WR he's been all season; I'd be shocked if Buffalo doesn't draft a WR in the first or second round next April.
For L.A., I trust no one. I repeat: no one. And honestly, I can't imagine how managers could trust anyone. Austin Ekeler started the season playing for a multi-year contract. Now he's just trying to be a desperate team's reclamation project. Yeah, it's gotten that bad for a long overworked RB with nothing to play for except a one-year "prove-it" deal.
Maybe Gerald Everett can give managers a 4-35 line. Maybe a WR will muster 6-45. But in the playoffs, you need and deserve more than hope. You need reliability. And there are no reliable double-digit scorers for the Chargers tonight.
Good luck.