Eight of 16 road teams won in Week 16, including two of three yesterday. For context, 55.8% of home teams have won this season. Last year it was 55.7%. About a decade ago, the historical percentage was 57%-58%.
Admittedly, the game scripts I put together for each game assume some degree of home-field advantage. But in recent years, that hasn't been as strong of a performance indicator. While it still matters, it's resulted in a few extra road victories per season.
Of course, winning doesn't automatically lead to more offensive fantasy points. Looks at the Raiders, whose DST has now scored 48 points in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. But unless you started Zamir White, you got almost nothing from the team's skill players. Jakobi Meyers was #2 with 7.2 points. Austin Hooper was #3 with 3.3 points.
Buffalo was another example. In a game that probably decided many semifinal matchups, Josh Allen and Gabe Davis crushed it, and no one else hit 8+ points. An entirely expected road victory. On paper, a lopsided matchup. But most managers who started Bills players couldn't capitalize.
So maybe the whole home vs. road thing is outdated. While betting markets factor it in, maybe managers shouldn't -- or at least, shouldn't overthink it. Yes, there are always exceptions. Miami's beaten the Bills in Buffalo only once in the last 12 years. Many of those games were played in December or January. That's home-field advantage in a nutshell. But maybe we should take it on a case-by-case basis, because some stadiums and some weather conditions necessitate some consideration of which team might have an edge.
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OK, that was top-of-mind first thing this morning. Congratulations to all you winners. Brock Purdy is a big name heading into Week 17. He entered this weekend as the QB3 in points per game. Now there's rising talk that he's merely a game manager (could be) and/or system quarterback (might be). Similar jabs have been made at Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, and even (when Jake Browning was cooking) Joe Burrow.
In re-draft fantasy leagues, I don't think it matters much. As long as Purdy keeps trotting out there, he's a good bet for top-8 production. In other words, he's pretty much a weekly must-start QB. Baltimore's surrendering the league's fewest points. They lead the league in forced turnovers. I over-estimated San Francisco's ability to move the ball. The Ravens had answers -- exclamation points -- on nearly every drive.
But I don't think this is a sign that Purdy's overrated. He is who he is: the starting QB in one of the NFL's best offenses. Two of his interceptions bounced off his target. Another came on a blind-side hit as he was throwing. In recent weeks we've seen some of the league's "top" QBs make poor decisions, throwing the ball in traffic and losing possession. The Niners get Washington next weekend. That's the kind of get-right matchup that managers need, and it also should put to rest (for now) complaints that Purdy's a fraud.
Back to the Raiders: nearly two weeks ago I wrote that their matchup against the Chargers was critically important in fantasy circles. Because if they won, they'd roll with their healthy starters in Week 16. And then if they somehow upset the Chiefs, they'd roll with their healthy starters again in Week 17. Because as long as they're fighting for a playoff spot, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will still be out there.
If Josh Jacobs sits again next week, Zamir White would be a must-start option (and possibly a title winner) against a Colts D that's yielding the third-most RB fantasy points. Although Adams and Meyers would remain fringe starters, the matchup is more favorable than yesterday's in K.C.
Let's take this a step further (outside the fantasy realm). The Chiefs haven't yet clinched, and they're facing the Bengals and Chargers. Who knows what kind of Cincy and L.A. teams will show up. But if the Bengals win, their odds of reaching the postseason will rise to around 50/50, and if the Raiders also win their game . . . well, things would get insane. Because that would draw Vegas within one game of Kansas City. If the Chiefs lose to the Chargers in the final week, and if the Raiders beat Denver, then the Raiders would leapfrog the Chiefs and Broncos to claim the AFC West title.
I'll go so far as to say that I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy Garoppolo starts in Week 17. With one exception (against the Chargers), Aidan O'Connell hasn't looked NFL-ready. And if Jimmy G. reclaims his job, it would easily bump Adams and Meyers. Fantasy managers with one or both of these wideouts could win or lose the championship based on what the playoff-contending Raiders decide.