Tonight's contest will (likely) officially knock one team out of playoff contention while leaving the other barely on the fringes. Because six Wild Card contenders are currently two games up on both the Raiders and Chargers.
That's why reports suggest Vegas will pull the plug on Aidan O'Connell early if the rookie continues to struggle. And if you're starting Davante Adams and/or Jakobi Meyers, that outcome isn't reassuring. Better for the Raiders to commit fully to O'Connell in Superflex leagues, or commit fully to Jimmy G. in very deep leagues.
And it actually seems bizarre that this team isn't starting Garoppolo. Surely they know what O'Connell can do, and that he might still be a promising prospect. But with their season literally on the line, I would think they'd go with the more experienced and steadier hand.
So if the news suddenly shifts and Jimmy is named the starter, Adams' (if he plays) and Meyers' values would move upward, making both startable in most leagues. But if it's O'Connell, then I can't imagine more than one Vegas WR getting fed -- even against a defense yielding the NFL's most passing yards. Ideal opportunity, and a rough QB situation. So if Adams sits, Meyers would become a solid option, and if Adams starts, it's basically a 50/50 bet on him and Meyers.
On the ground, as of late Wednesday night, Josh Jacobs appears to be on the wrong side of questionable. I was very big on Zamir White when the Raiders drafted him, but the 24-year-old would be more of a desperation play if Jacobs sits. Ameer Abdullah might handle much of the passing-game work, making White more of a TD-or-bust option.
However, there's some added chaos with White. In the last six games with O'Connell under center, Josh Jacobs netted only 15 targets, while Abdullah had three. But in O'Connell's NFL debut -- against these Chargers in Week 4 -- the play-caller looked Jacobs' way 11 times. A fluke? No, it was probably a combination of two factors: a green rookie needing a short-yardage outlet, and . . . a defense that's been pummeled through the air by RBs.
Here's the reality: Chargers opponents have targeted RBs the most in the league (111 times), leading to the second-most yards (650). If this trend continues, then there should be plenty of work for White through the air, even if Abdullah gets his share. Although Abdullah seems beyond the normal "desperation" play, White would be a certifiable boom-bust option, giving some managers at least a *shot* at a big night. If you're stuck with a likely single-digit RB playing later this week, I'd rather go for broke with White.
For L.A., Austin Ekeler seemed to do enough on Sunday to merit another medium- to high-volume workload, which sounds strange to write. Will it matter with Easton Stick at the helm. The 28-year-old QB entered Sunday with only one career pass (three years ago). After entering with less than two minutes remaining in the first half, he proceeded to target Ekeler five times. That's a pretty good haul for an RB averaging "only" 5.4 targets per game.
In other words, while the Chargers might struggle more than usual to reach the red zone, Ekeler's floor shouldn't be any worse -- and might even be better -- than when Herbert was under center.
Through the air, all bets are off. The Raiders have actually been pretty good on defense, surrendering the ninth-fewest points. Their pass D is average or even above average. Stick is truly an unknown commodity, but here's what we do know: He replaced Carson Wentz at North Dakota State, earned his share of collegiate accolades, and then was seemingly overdrafted (fifth round) by a Chargers franchise that presumably hoped he'd spend a season learning under Philip Rivers before (possibly) getting his shot.
Stick runs very well for a quarterback, so this wasn't as farfetched as it might seem. Think Taysom Hill with a winning pedigree (NDSU went 41-3 during his three years as the starter). But Stick didn't carry the ball once in his debut. So the question is whether he'll be "unleashed" tonight -- if head coach Brandon Staley trusts him to play to what might be his biggest strength: running with the ball. I've got no answers, because there's almost no context to work with. And yet, Superflexers deciding between him and O'Connell should, in my opinion, go with the more mobile Stick, who's less likely to be benched mid-game.
Meanwhile, the return of Joshua Palmer couldn't have come at a worse time for anyone leaning on Keenan Allen . . . if Allen were playing. But he isn't. So . . . yay? What a mess. So do we trust Palmer in his first game back, the seemingly low-ceiling Quentin Johnston, or neither? Because with Stick possibly running more on the ground, and with the ball funneling to Ekeler as much as possible (or for as long as he's effective), and with fourth-round rookie Derius Davis possibly getting more run, and with Gerald Everett serving as a safety valve, can we really trust any L.A. wideout tonight?
Keep in mind, 123 of Stick's 179 passing yards Sunday came on his final two drives with the Chargers down three scores. The Raiders' offense probably won't be potent enough to jump to a big lead, so I'm not expecting any kind of fourth quarter bend-don't-break D. My over/under for Chargers WR receiving yards is 120.5. You're hoping for a score or 10+ targets, and neither seems realistic.
Final score prediction: Raiders win 13-9, handing them a make-or-break matchup next week in Kansas City. Win that one, and they're 7-8 with a somewhat favorable schedule (Colts and Broncos, both 7-6). In other words, they should still have something to play for in Week 16, which would be good news for those rostering Jacobs, Adams, and Meyers (and/or possibly Zamir White).
Leave your prediction below, and if you're torn, I'd be happy to donate a prediction in your name.