Why was Javonte Williams a fade yesterday, despite being an expert-consensus top-20 RB? Because understanding likely game flow is a key to making more accurate fantasy predictions. Yes, the Broncos (4.5-point underdogs) could have upset the Lions. But as shared yesterday, I had them losing by 12+. The most likely outcome was a comfortable Detroit victory.
Entering yesterday, Williams had 88 carries when leading and only 52 when trailing. He's now averaging about 3.4 yards per carry (with only one rushing score) since Week 7. Williams' path to success hinges on a positive game script against a beatable run defense. The Lions have one of the league's best run defenses. It was a perfect storm of disappointment.
If you read through my Saturday rundowns in yesterday's column, you'll see how my game scripts fed into my predictions. When the games play out largely as expected, we hit big. When they don't . . . that's when I write "I never expected Tommy DeVito to play this well," or something like that. That's chaos. That's a problem.
But if we can accurately predict what will happen on a macro level, then the rest comes down to simple on-the-field probabilities: Tee Higgins coming through, Gardner Minshew outperforming Mitch Trubisky, Amon-Ra St. Brown bouncing back, etc. I missed big on Jordan Addison, mostly because I underestimated Nick Mullens. Those two connected at the expense of Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. We can understand *why* it happened, and that's half the battle.
As always, I've created a couple of DraftKings DFS 50/50 slates for today's contests based on "likely" game scripts. I've veered away from most questionable players, which is limiting and also necessary with this column posting seven hours before the first games start. The 1:00pm Eastern slate features Jordan Love, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Breece Hall, and the Titans DST.
My thinking is that Houston's offense will struggle to move the ball, opening the door for more possessions, yardage, and touchdown opportunities for Tennessee. I'm also betting on Tyreek Hill and/or De'Von Achane playing at less than 100% (if they do suit up), giving the Jets a fighting chance to stay competitive into the third quarter. That should play into their win-or-it's-over game plan of force-feeding Wilson and Hall. And these days, betting against the Bucs' secondary is a good bet, which is why I'm big on the Packers' passing attack.
For the later-afternoon contests, I've got Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams, Chris Rodriguez, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp, Dawson Knox, Demarcus Robinson, and the Cardinals DST. I'm hoping that Purdy, Williams, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kupp will carry this lineup. The other four slots are filled with extraordinarily cheap options. No, I'm not happy about taking Arizona. But as long as the Niners and Rams move the ball well against significantly sub-par defenses, this slate should hit.
Good luck today.