I'll be honest: It's easier to write each day when my team's doing well. Monday mornings after getting crushed on Sunday are the hardest. Monday mornings after crushing my opponent is a breeze. Basically, Monday mornings are the best or the worst for all the best and worst reasons.
But this is Saturday, and many of us are still in the thick of the title chase. Congrats if you've made it this far. And like many of you who are in the playoffs, I'm limping along, hoping not to go 0-3 this season vs. a fearsome team managed by Steve Michelson and Ross Fessenden. It's the opening round, and I'm stuck starting Mitch Trubisky instead of Justin Herbert and either Rico Dowdle or Samaje Perine instead of Isiah Pacheco (or maybe I'll start both and bench the TD-dependent D'Andre Swift).
So if you're feeling pain, I can empathize.
There are three huge games today. By my count, these matchups feature 28 (give or take one or two) fantasy-relevant skill players, plus the usual DSTs and/or kickers. A 30-point outburst by Ja'Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown could mean the difference between advancing or elimination. A 20-point showing by Trubisky or Nick Mullens could impact not only those QBs, but also the WRs, TEs, and/or RBs who need receiving yards and scoring opportunities to hit their potential.
The opener is fascinating, featuring the Bengals vs. Vikings. Cincy is a three-point favorite, and I think they'll win/cover. While Minnesota's pass defense has been just north of middling, consider that their recent opposing QBs are sub-middling passers from a yardage/touchdown perspective: Aidan O'Connell (until this past Thursday), Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr (and Jameis Winston), and Desmond Ridder. Strangely, Jake Browning might be the best passing QB Minnesota's faced since Jordan Love in Week 8 or Brock Purdy in Week 7.
I would be comfortable streaming Browning in 14-team leagues, while Ja'Marr Chase and, yes, Tee Higgins should be locked in. Tanner Hudson is still a good desperation TE. Joe Mixon is a good volume play, as the Vikes' pretty stout run D has looked shaky this past month. And Chase Brown is a capable dart throw yet again.
For the Vikings, with Alexander Mattison out, Ty Chandler should get all he can handle. The Bengals' run D has been statistically worse than Minnesota's, but has looked better the last two games. However, Cincy's pass D remains a work in progress, opening the door for Justin Jefferson and (probably) T.J. Hockenson to get their points. Still, let's not prematurely anoint Nick Mullens as a fantasy savior. While he has all the playmakers needed to thrive, he's not necessarily an upgrade over the struggling Joshua Dobbs. Mullens lacks Dobbs' dual-threat abilities. Cincy is a respectable 11th in QB hits. I don't think he'll feed more than two guys through the air, making Jordan Addison a fringe deep-league starter with a roughly five-point floor.
The next game matters a lot to me, because I've got Trubisky and my opponent has Michael Pittman, the Colts DST, and kicker Matt Gay. Objectively, this game could play out any number of ways, though I believe the favored Colts (-1.5) will win by at least six points. Both teams are adequate against the run, though teams have run it 411 times vs. Indy, which is the second-most in the league. That's led to 19 rushing scores (also second-most). It's hard to fathom benching Zack Moss, Najee Harris, or Jaylen Warren. They all have strong double-digit upside. And no, I have no idea whether to start Najee or Warren. Only head coach Mike Tomlin and his staff know -- and maybe they don't even know yet. It's a prolonged hot-hand backfield with no end in sight.
Through the air, until last week, Pittsburgh's D was on a three-game streak of holding opposing #1 WRs in check: Marquise Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, and Amari Cooper. Not too shabby. But can they hope to stop Pittman, who's scored 14+ points in eight straight? I doubt it. He and Gardner Minshew are locked in, and as I've written a lot this season, no #2 WR has consistently stepped up. I'd bank on Pittman hitting 12+. TE Will Mallory (rising usage in recent weeks) is a fascinating deep-league dart throw. Every other Indy WR and TE is a less fascinating deep-league dart throw.
I'm betting that Minshew will outperform Trubisky. The former *should* hit 15+ unless he goes turnover-crazy, and the latter *should* hit 12+ if he's dumping off to Najee and Warren and letting his RBs do the rest. What does this mean for George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth? The Colts D is #3 in sacks, #7 in forced turnovers, and #8 in QB hits. I doubt Trubisky will have the time (or abilities) to feed more than one receiver. If you guess right, wonderful. Some of you might not have better options. For what it's worth, with their season almost on the line, I expect Trubisky to look to Pickens more than anyone else. But the talented WR is still mini-boom-bust.
For the final game, I believe the favored Lions (-4.5) will rally and rebound, beating the Broncos by 12+. Let's not overthink it. It's the same thing as always for me: If you have David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, start both for a good shot at 25+ combined points. Sam LaPorta is an obvious must-start. Jared Goff will do everything possible to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown (12+ targets?), who should have a big game. Jameson Williams is the same TD-dependent option with a two-point floor.
Hats off to Denver, which regrouped after getting obliterated by Miami in Week 3 and, if not for a 52-yard Wil Lutz field goal with less than four minutes left against Green Bay, probably would have fallen to 1-6. But I think their brilliant play will grind to a halt tonight. Detroit's underperforming defense *should* snap back against a weak passing attack that depends a lot on Courtland Sutton scoring. I wrote about this earlier in the week. It's simply not sustainable. Sutton doesn't command the volume to be a weekly fantasy starter. If he hits paydirt, great. But I don't trust him this week.
And the Lions have been pretty good against the run. Denver needs a strong running game, because Russell Wilson isn't the same playmaker that he once was through the air. I believe Javonte Williams will be lucky to exceed 60 total yards, while Perine is a start-him-and-hope RB. 34 of Perine's 44 targets have been in the second and fourth quarters, and only 15 have come while leading. Game script should comfortably net him 6+ points. But his ceiling isn't high enough for many managers.
At QB, I'm comfortable rolling with Goff as a top-12 option, but Wilson is more top 18-22.
Good luck today.