Jalen Hurts is a somewhat unique fantasy entity. Even if the skill players around him turn out to be unstartable, he can still thrive. It spells obvious trouble for a team that's now at risk of earning only a 5-seed and playing on the road throughout the fantasy playoffs.
But I think the Eagles' woes don't rest solely or even largely on Hurts' shoulders. True, interceptions are up compared to last year. But he's roughly on par in passing yards per game, TD passes per game, and completion percentage.
He's maintaining these clips despite the fact that Philly has the toughest regular season schedule based on 2022 win-loss records, while Philly's near-elite last season has become a major liability this year. The Hurts-led offense had the luxury of picking and choosing its moments for most of 2022. Hurts was actually at his worst statistically when trailing, when he threw 17.4% of his passes. Entering last night (I don't have the comprehensive stats yet), 39.1% of his passes have occurred while trailing, resulting in massive numbers.
There's talk this morning about the Eagles being no better than the 2020 Steelers (which started 11-0). But for context, that Pittsburgh team enjoyed the second-easiest schedule. And by the way, I'm not saying strength of schedule is a key indicator of real-world or fantasy production. The data is inconclusive. Following the Eagles, the teams with the toughest schedules this year are the Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys, Giants, Jets, and Bills. The teams with the easiest schedules are the Falcons, Saints, Texans, Colts, Titans, and Panthers.
Maybe some of it comes down to who's at quarterback. Philly, Miami, Dallas, and Buffalo have stability, while New England and both New York teams have had (for most of the year) some of the league's worst QB play. The same goes for the easy-schedule teams, with Atlanta, Carolina, and (for much of the season) Tennessee limping along through the air, while Houston and Indy have delivered fairly reliable results among their key skill players (when healthy).
Philly wrap up with two games against the Giants and one versus the Cardinals. If you drafted Eagles and are still in the playoffs, this is partly why you drafted them. The worst is over, I believe. Entering last night, they'd wrapped up a five-game stretch against the Cowboys (twice), Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers and still managed to average 23.6 points. I expect them to average 30+ these next two weeks, meaning great times for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, at a minimum, and hopefully D'Andre Swift's 20 touches Monday are a sign of a recommitment to one of their key offseason acquisitions.
For Seattle, an incredible victory that keeps them firmly in playoff contention, which is good news for managers leaning on their skill players in Weeks 16 and especially 17. Whatever happens next week, we should expect all their key guys to be out there for the fantasy title game, because they can't be eliminated in Week 16.
On the ground, I've shared my strong belief that Kenneth Walker is better than Zach Charbonnet. That's not an unfair knock on the rookie. But for fantasy purposes, the better bet has always been on Walker, and he came through last night. After four straight outings with one catch, he's earned seven in his last two games, which has elevated his floor. Most signs are pointing to him as a key offensive focal point down the stretch.
And amazingly, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was #3 in fantasy points in this context, trailing only Hurts and Walker. It would have been easy to knock him for much of the season while playing alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Throughout this season I've publicly warned that an ascending JSN is inevitable -- whether it's this year or next -- and that it would spell trouble for those rostering Metcalf and/or Lockett. While Metcalf is still the de facto lead WR with the biggest boom, a crowded WR corps is not what managers want to see at this stage.
Congratulations to those of you who advanced. On to Week 16.