Last week's Thursday Night Football game featured nine 15+ point scorers. Tonight's matchup might produce zero. In fact, both DSTs might lead the way.
Pittsburgh is averaging the fifth-fewest points per game, thanks in part to producing the second-fewest passing yards and second-fewest passing TDs. Their impressively low six interceptions are based more on conservative play than on QB talent. They're also 10th-worst in third-down conversion rate, which actually isn't bad considering how awful their passing attack has been. But it's one key reason why they're averaging the fifth-fewest offensive plays per game.
While offensive plays aren't an ideal indicator of fantasy prowess, they're one metric managers should consider when weighing sit/start decisions. The only teams that average fewer plays are the Jets, Raiders, Titans, and Broncos. The teams that average the most are the Browns, Saints, Lions, Eagles, and Cowboys. Again, not a perfect indicator, but a useful one when assessing player performance probabilities.
In addition to conservative game calling, the Steelers are still squarely in the playoff hunt because of strong running, timely defense, and one of the NFL's easiest schedules (based on last year's team records). They're 10th in yards per carry, but are well below average in rushing scores, thanks largely to the previously mentioned anemic passing game. There's only so much Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can do. Stick them on the Cowboys and remove Tony Pollard, and both guys could be weekly starters. Instead, Harris and Warren often cancel each other out, or else one does well at the other's expense. Neither is in the top 30 in RB points per game. Basically, if they don't score, they're longshots to exceed 10 points.
And as bad as the Patriots have been (historically bad, by franchise standards), their defense is yielding a league-low 3.2 yards per carry and the second-fewest passing yards. Simply incredible -- and perhaps unprecedented -- for a two-win team in December that also happens to be last in points scored per game, bottom-five in passing yards and yards per pass attempt, and tied for the second-most interceptions thrown.
Tonight's a battle between two strong D's and two anemic passing games. I would put the over/under on punts + turnovers at 12. With Najee looking questionable at best, it might mean 18+ touches for Warren. But that doesn't mean he'll be a top-20 RB. Of course, if Harris sits, Warren has to be in most fantasy lineups. Simply set realistic expectations against an often stifling run defense. It doesn't help that Pittsburgh's Mitch-Trubisky-led aerial attack probably won't produce more than 170 yards.
Speaking of which, George Pickens last earned more than four catches (he had five) on October 22nd, the day Diontae Johnson returned to the lineup. He's cleared 58 yards only once since then. He and Johnson are almost entirely TD-dependent, and based on the matchup, those are bad odds. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth is a desperation flyer. His Week 12 outburst reminded us how good he is. But this offense cannot support more than one receiver per game. When he and Pickens and Johnson are healthy, the odds that one will break out against a competent pass D are slim at best.
For New England, Zeke Elliott might actually be the highest-scoring fantasy skill player, assuming he nets 16+ touches (and plenty of volume through the air). There's little doubt that Bailey Zappe will lean on the veteran. Of course, New England backfields are notoriously unpredictable. If JaMycal Hasty is active, he could get looks. And the almost 31-year-old Ty Montgomery, who last exceeded 50 touches in 2017 (four teams ago), could somehow cap Zeke's ceiling. Zeke is a start-and-hope option, rather than a must-start option.
Through the air, I wrote last Saturday that Week 13 might be the final fantasy-relevant performance of DeVante Parker's career. Then I deleted it, because it sounded harsh. But then he produced double-digit points on nine targets. So . . . yeah, it might turn out to be the final good outing for the almost 31-year-old (he's two days older than Montgomery). Good luck guessing who, if anyone, will shine tonight, though Demario Douglas sitting does simplify things. That said, Pittsburgh's D has held opposing #1 WRs in check since Houston obliterated them two months ago. Betting on a New England receiver is like betting on a frog-jumping contest.
Final score prediction: Steelers win 20-12. Leave your prediction below, preferably in a legible font.