Most teams playing today have at least one major fantasy question mark -- either a game-time decision or an historically big-time player who could easily flop. Can we depend on Ja'Marr Chase with Jake Browning under center? Will Trevor Lawrence (probably starting, but probably limited) lead to 20 or fewer pass attempts, as the Jags simply try to keep him upright? Who's starting under center for Cleveland?
The Saints have more questionable tags than an expired sale at Walmart. (Not sure that metaphor stuck the landing.) Noah Brown has massive upside and a zero-point floor. The hobbled Breece Hall might be out-touched by Dalvin Cook, while the struggling Austin Ekeler might be out-touched by Joshua Kelley (though I think Ekeler will do well). Is Cooper Kupp startable in what could be a torrential rainstorm?
How can we value Seattle's receivers with Geno Smith currently a game-time decision? What do we make of Justin Jefferson in his return? What do we make of Clyde Edwards-Helaire presumably starting over the injured Isiah Pacheco?
On that last question, I have Pacheco and CEH, and am starting CEH not with confidence, but with hope. Because as I've written since this summer, Jerick McKinnon isn't the same player we've seen in years past. Yes, I get it: he helped some of you win the title last year, when he averaged an insane 26.0 points per game from Week 14 thru Week 17.
It was also a perfect storm, schedule-wise. Twice he faced a Denver defense yielding 4.5 YPC to opposing RBs and the fifth-most RB receptions. He faced a Seattle D surrendering 4.9 YPC and the sixth-most RB receiving yards. And he faced a Houston D giving up 5.2 YPC to opposing RBs and the most RB touchdowns.
While anything can happen, focusing exclusively on McKinnon's 2022 greatness while ignoring his 2023 struggles is, at minimum, risky. The 31-year-old's advanced metrics are historically bad. Yes, he could get five catches for 30 yards. But with Pacheco potentially missing multiple weeks, I'm betting that head coach Andy Reid gives CEH more run. Even if the former first-round pick nets only 45 yards on 13 carries, plus a couple of catches, he's helping to move the chains in ways McKinnon frequently hasn't this season. The rest comes down to what happens near the goal line, making CEH a high-probability top-40 RB with a decent shot at a score. Nothing flashy, though I strongly believe he'll outperform McKinnon.
For DraftKings DFS 50/50 lineups, my 1:00pm Eastern slate includes Joe Flacco (assuming he starts), Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, D.J. Moore, Tanner Hudson, Parker Washington, and the Jets DST. While I don't think Washington will exceed eight fantasy points, he's the cheapest starter, giving me the flexibility to go big elsewhere at WR. And my 4:00pm lineup includes Brock Purdy, CMC, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Rashee Rice, Quentin Johnston, Michael Mayer, Jauan Jennings, and the Niners DST.
Huge, huge day for so many of us. Good luck.