Some Thursday Night Football games can make or break a manager's week. For some of you, last night might have determined if you make or miss the playoffs.
It was the highest-scoring TNF contest since Week 7 last year, when the Cardinals and Saints also combined for 76 points. But that game had more evenly distributed fantasy scoring, as Eno Benjamin led Arizona with 23.3 points. Kyler Murray had "only" 17.2. New Orleans' previously unstartable Andy Dalton led all scorers with 26.5 points, while Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Juwan Johnson netted between 17.5 and 20.2 points.
Last night was different not only because the late-season stakes are higher, but also because there were more dominant performances. If you started CeeDee Lamb, D.K. Metcalf, Geno Smith, Dak Prescott, and/or Jake Ferguson, you secured elite positional production. The first four scored 28.3 to 37.4 points. In other words, CeeDee, Metcalf, Geno, and Dak all outscored the top scorer in that similarly high-scoring Cardinals-Saints matchup.
Predicting top-heavy scoring is tough, obviously. CeeDee and Dak were easy calls. But Metcalf started the evening as the WR31 in points per game. He had been a mostly weak starter, with five outings between 10.9 and 13.7 points and two others at 6.2 or less. And Geno entered the night exceeding 13.9 fantasy points only once in his previous eight games. That's not a typo.
Geno and Metcalf connected only six times, but they accounted for 58% of Geno's fantasy points. Facing a near-elite pass defense, none of it made sense. And yet, watching the game -- for example, seeing Geno flick his gaze to the right to pull a safety, and then guiding a *perfectly* thrown ball to Metcalf through a tight gap for a long TD -- reminds us that this team can still somehow get it done. Why have the struggled so often this season? I don't know. And while a litany of Dallas penalties helped sustain Seattle drives and deliver scoring opportunities, their passing attack looked as crisp as ever.
Elsewhere, I whiffed on Zach Charbonnet, not trusting him to run efficiently or to score in what was *supposed* to be a negative game script. Well, he ran poorly. But the team kept feeding him, and that volume -- as well as a one-yard punch-in -- surely made managers happy. On the downside, he got hurt late. While his status for next week's brutal matchup in San Francisco isn't known, his days as a fantasy starter this season might be over if he misses Week 14, or if Kenneth Walker returns.
What do managers do with Tyler Lockett? It's a tough situation with a slowly ascending Jaxon Smith-Njigba eating up valuable targets. The rookie led all Seattle receivers with 11 looks. The 31-year-old Lockett is getting squeezed out. He's a top-40 WR, which sums things up nicely (or rather, poorly). While the veteran is only in a three-game slump, there's no sign of him suddenly breaking free. He's simply a speculative streamer going forward.
And with Noah Fant's TD called back, Seattle tight ends still haven't found the end zone this year, and none have hit 10+ points. Incredible.
For Dallas, beyond the obvious, Tony Pollard exceeded 15 carries for the first time since Week 3. Rico Dowdle is back to being a distant #2 RB in this offense. And while this isn't what managers want to hear, be wary of Brandin Cooks. He now has five scores on 37 catches. On the one hand, hey, that's great. Dak's looking his way near the end zone. On the other hand, he's hit 50+ yards only twice and 5+ catches only once. There's nothing wrong with being the #4 option in the league's most potent offense. But . . . being the #4 option makes him a streamer rather than a must-start WR. If he doesn't score, he'll likely cause managers pain.
As for the closest-score competition, Chris Hupe took the prize, predicting a 45-37 Dallas victory. A few of you had Seattle winning, which I thought was gutsy, and in hindsight clearly was smart. The Seahawks had three great chances in the fourth quarter to extend drives, but faltered all three times. Congrats to Chris for achieving closest-score immortality.