Big, big games today for most of you. Rain expected for the Patriots-Chargers and Jets-Falcons. Rain possible for the Steelers-Cardinals and Eagles-49ers. And as of Saturday night, snow seems unlikely during the Packers-Chiefs faceoff.
I get that rain can have an impact, and we've also seen situations where managers overreact to bad weather, benching guys who *should* be fine. Studies have been done (by other smart people) showing that wind has a bigger adverse impact on aerial production than rain does.
So let's see what happens with Keenan Allen and the other fantasy-relevant receivers in those mild-to-strong-probability rain games. I'm not starting Justin Herbert with confidence, but that has more to do with his receivers' injury woes and Austin Ekeler's arguably diminished play.
And if you're planning to start Travis Etienne on Monday, consider the risks. No, they're not huge at this point. Although questionable, the bell cow is expected to suit up. Still, remember what I shared yesterday about his usage. Even if he starts, how much action will he see in a game the Jags should win relatively comfortably? I get it; it's hard to bench him. But if you're deciding between him and, say, Jaylen Warren, I'd go Warren.
For perspective, Etienne is the expert-consensus RB3 this week, based on FantasyPros' composite of analyst rankings. He's a no-brainer starter. Except . . . context is key. I think that's too optimistic for a guy Jacksonville probably doesn't need to overwork.
For my 1:00pm Eastern DraftKings 50/50 DFS lineup, I'm going with Tua, Warren, Najee Harris, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Curtis Samuel, Juwan Johnson, Greg Dortch, and the Titans DST. Going all in on Miami running up the score on Washington, and I love the Pittsburgh RB hedge against a run D surrendering the second-most RB fantasy points per game.
For the later-afternoon slate, gimme the Bucs over the spiraling Panthers: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, and Cade Otton. And I'm rounding out this lineup with Kyren Williams, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jonathan Mingo, and the Browns DST.
Good luck today.