When 27-year-old Jake Browning replaced the injured Joe Burrow in Week 11, the green QB had only one career NFL pass attempt. Just one.
But college matters, and Browning deserves credit for helming three Washington Huskies offenses to AP top-25 finishes. As a senior in 2018, his two running backs were future Dolphins Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. Gaskin actually played with him all four years.
Browning's #1 TE was Drew Sample, who caught Browning's second NFL TD pass last week. And his top WRs were . . . Aaron Fuller, Andre Baccellia, and Ty Jones. As a junior, Browning's top target was Dante Pettis, an eventual second-round NFL bust. As a sophomore, it was John Ross, an eventual first-round NFL bust (drafted by Cincy).
Despite being one of the nation's most highly touted QBs coming out of high school, there was very little in Browning's collegiate career that suggested "good NFL prospect." And the fact that his top offensive assets during those four years didn't amount to much at the professional level . . . well, you get the idea.
And yet, there's another way of looking at Browning. What if he were surrounded by extraordinary playmakers? Like former "Mr. Irrelevant" Brock Purdy, what if Browning went from "good college QB on a good team" to "inexperienced NFL QB on a great team?"
I've been wondering this morning whether the Burrow-led Bengals would have beaten the Jags last night. "Probably" is a fair answer. But "definitely" or even "almost definitely" seems like a stretch. That doesn't mean Browning is almost as talented as Burrow. But it means -- at least to me -- that Browning's poise and abilities might be a great fit for a Cincy squad that combines timely defense with explosive offensive plays.
Browning played almost flawlessly, in part because Ja'Marr Chase played almost flawlessly. Because Joe Mixon got it done when it mattered most. Because Tee Higgins returned, giving Browning a massive upgrade over Trenton Irwin. Because rookie Chase Brown -- one of my favorite preseason RB stashes, who I'd all but given up on -- mauled the Jags' D with 61 yards on nine carries. And . . . in spite of Tyler Boyd nearly throwing away the game on a ridiculous interception.
Prevailing fantasy sensibilities -- mine certainly included -- go out the window after last night. If Browning can even come *close* to replicating this performance going forward, Chase will remain a must-start WR, and the gradually re-acclimating Higgins should be fine, too. Tanner Hudson will remain a deep-league streamer. At 6-6, they're in the thick of the playoff hunt. Their starters will be full go's for at least two more games, and probably at least three. And if they beat Indy next week, we can trust that they'll keep their starters on the field through Week 17, regardless of how they do in Weeks 15 and 16.
For the Jags, not much needs to be said. We're all awaiting word on the severity of Trevor Lawrence's ankle injury and Christian Kirk's groin injury. C.J. Beathard obviously would be a downgrade for managers with Calvin Ridley (and Kirk, if he's okay). Zay Jones would be a desperation play, while rookie sixth-rounder Parker Washington probably wouldn't be much better. And as with many TEs, Evan Engram might take a small hit, but would remain in most fantasy starting lineups.
If Lawrence is okay, and if Kirk is forced to miss time, then Washington would be a big winner, making him an intriguing waiver add for WR-desperate managers. However, there usually aren't many WR-desperate managers. Remember, Washington wasn't a highly touted NFL prospect (though of course, neither was Browning). Still, this is a pretty crowded offense. Washington played flawlessly at the expense of Ridley, and with Travis Etienne limited to 11 carries. This team had averaged 34 throws per game entering last night, and they walked away with 39. There's strong regression potential for Washington, because yesterday had too many outliers to bank on going forward.
Finally, one more word on Chase Brown. I'd rather pick up him than Washington, and it's not even close. Clearly, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor wanted to get his rookie involved, and Brown delivered. While Mixon's standing atop the depth chart remains firm, Mixon hasn't exactly lit up defenses on the ground these past two seasons. In most years, he's been a volume-friendly fantasy running back who benefitted immensely from 16 touchdowns in 2021 and 60 receptions in 2022. His yards-after-first-contact are now at a career-low 1.3, which is pretty bad. His broken-tackle rate is at its lowest since 2020. His dropped-pass rate is more than double his previous career-worst mark.
Assuredly, Taylor and his coach staff can see this and more. While Mixon is a strong RB11 in points per game, he hasn't been as electric on the field. Brown provided a spark last night, which is why the Bengals drafted him after losing Samaje Perine. At worst, Brown could be one of the better RB handcuffs to roster as we approach the fantasy playoffs.