T.J. Hockenson's season-ending injury compounds an already tough situation for managers who drafted him this summer. I targeted him in the fourth round of my 14-team PFFL league and thought I got a steal. Sure enough, he wrapped up Week 15 as the overall TE1. While Sam LaPorta wins "TE bargain of the year," Hock delivered high floors and massive ceilings.
While researching this post, I had figured that Kirk Cousins' midseason injury was the biggest "what-if" for what could have been a truly blow-up campaign. But no. In eight games with Cousins under center, Hock averaged 14.6 points. In his other seven outings with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, or Jaren Hall at the helm, Hock averaged . . . 14.6 points.
The biggest "what-if" wasn't about how good Hock could have been, but rather how un-bargain-like he could have been. Because with Justin Jefferson on the field, Hockenson averaged only 12.2 points, compared to 17.3 with Jefferson sidelined.
This raises a question for me -- and maybe for some of you -- heading into next season. Who are the top five 2024 fantasy TEs, and is Hockenson even on the list?
Yeah, I know. It would seem a little nutty to leave him off. He's only 26 years old. But Jordan Addison presumably is ascending. K.J. Osborn will be a free agent, opening the door to a possible WR upgrade this offseason. And Minnesota's tied for the NFL's second-fewest rushing scores (seven) and fourth-fewest rushing first downs on a sub-standard 3.9 yards per carry. In fact, their RBs have accounted for only four of their rushing TDs. There's plenty of room for improvement.
Hockenson averaged 0.75 red-zone targets in games where Jefferson was on the field and 1.0 when Jefferson sat. Doesn't seem like a big difference. But in analyzing who's elite and who's near-elite, that can equate to one or two extra (or fewer) touchdowns.
No doubt, there are offenses where the top guys thrive in tandem. Very good offenses can feed one or even two elite players. Great offenses (for example, the 2007 Patriots) can feed three. Historically great offenses (like the 2013 Broncos) can feed five, plus a couple of weekly streamers. A fully healthy Vikings offense could take a significant leap forward in 2024 en route to 500+ points, making Jefferson, Hockenson, and Cousins weekly must-start RBs, with Addison, Ty Chandler, and perhaps even Alexander Mattison providing streamable floors and top-16 ceilings.
But I'm not convinced they can take that leap. If there are any Vikings fans on this page, please share your thoughts. From a franchise perspective, it's been a tough, well, 62 years. From a fantasy perspective, this team has the assets to deliver big for managers. But if Hock averages only around 7.3 targets per game (which is what he averaged when Jefferson was active this year) versus 9.9 (when Jefferson was out), then he'll have a tougher time cracking the top five.
And back to the core question: Who are your top-five fantasy TEs in 2024? Travis Kelce will turn 35, and George Kittle 31. Evan Engram ascended when Christian Kirk went down. Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet, Trey McBride, and Jake Ferguson are rising young stars. If the Falcons land a top-16 passer, Kyle Pitts could finally make good on his uber potential. Will Isaiah Likely push for more attention alongside a healthy Mark Andrews? Will David Njoku revert to mediocrity when Deshaun Watson returns?
With all these question marks looming, I'm having a tough time locking in Hock.