Chaos levels the fantasy playing field. Tank Dell was knocked out nine snaps into his Week 12 matchup. A week later, teammate Nico Collins exited after only three snaps. Both were objectively must-start WRs entering their doomed contests. With Dalton Schultz also injured, C.J. Stroud (who was forced out in the third quarter) never had much of a chance against a good Jets D. It was a perfect storm of chaos that, in the span of about eight days, ravaged a fantasy-friendly NFL team -- and plenty of savvy fantasy managers.
I'd always rather lose because of chaos than because of poor decision making, just as I'd always rather win because of smart decision making vs. chaos crushing my opponent. Most of us probably feel the same way. Avoidable defeats are the worst. Earned victories are the best. And in between, it's obviously better to win with good luck than to lose with bad luck.
And this is why I don't spend much time writing about good/bad luck, except how it impacts other players' values. There's not much to learn from Justin Herbert fracturing his finger, except that his teammates' fantasy values are now lower than ever. More interesting to me are the outcomes that -- with some degree of probability -- could have been predicted.
So with much of the season in the rearview mirror, let's isolate 2022's high-touch and high-snap-count RBs and assess how they've fared this season. On August 14th, I shared ongoing research highlighting regression rates for 350+ touch RBs (regular seaosn and playoffs). On average, their production drops 21% the following season. 28- to 30-year-old RBs drop 26%. 400+ RBs face even bigger average regressions (around 27%), with 28- to 30-year-olds dropping 30%.
Two days later, I shared research highlighting how 77% of RBs who earn 600+ offensive snaps (regular season and playoffs) score fewer fantasy points the following season. That percentage increases to 80% for 700+ snaps and to 81% for 800+ snaps. Interestingly, the percentage levels out to 79% for 900+ snap RBs.
I've sliced this data all sorts of ways. Whether it's percentage likelihood of a decline, or how *much* of a decline, or separated by age groups, the answers are generally the same: aging RBs with heavy workloads and/or high snap counts are high-probability regression candidates the following season. While there are outliers, if we choose to play the percentages, we should heed the data.
Last year, four RBs had 350+ touches ranging from 377 to 382. So no "massive" workloads. But all four had yellow flags. Among these four, Christian McCaffrey has simply dominated. However, at least in terms of efficiency, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs have all regressed. Saquon snapped back on Monday, and Henry has been on a TD roll; we'll see if it holds up the rest of the way. No doubt, all three RBs are still very good, relatively speaking. But Henry needs a strong finish to make good on his preseason ADP, and the other two have lagged considerably behind their ADPs, making them at least soft busts for managers who expected much more.
Essentially, if you bet on an RB coming off a 350+ touch campaign, you had a 50% chance of enduring major disappointment, a 25% chance of dealing with minor disappointment, and a 25% chance of thriving. To most of the fantasy universe, it was the result of chaos. But hopefully in this community, it's understood as a somewhat predictable outcome.
Meanwhile, of the 22 RBs earning 600+ touches last season, Saquon led the way with 955, followed by CMC (914), Dalvin Cook (891), and Jacobs (821). Four of the other 18 essentially have met or exceeded high expectations: Travis Etienne, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, and Tony Pollard. But the other 14 fall into one of three camps (and sometimes overlapping camps): statistical regressions, injury woes, and/or massive usage drops. These running backs include Ekeler, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, James Conner, Miles Sanders, and yes, Jerick McKinnon, a 31-year-old coming off a career-high 636-snap campaign.
Age, workload, and snap count are three metrics I analyze each summer when crafting RB rankings. I'm keeping a close eye on the 31-year-old Raheem Mostert, who's on pace for career-highs in touches and snaps. If he finishes strong this year, I can almost guarantee he'll be overvalued next summer. Tony Pollard will be 27 next year and has already exceeded his career-high for regular-season touches and snaps. A deep playoff run could make him a sharp fade heading into 2024.
And despite his relative youth, Etienne concerns me. He's on pace for 344 regular-season touches, which could hit 380+ in the playoffs. And after netting 759 snaps last season, he's on pace for 888 during the regular season, which could approach 1,000 in the playoffs. That would be a danger area, period.
So again, we can't control for chaos. But we can try to learn from seemingly chaotic situations. Some can be predicted; others cannot. If we focus on the predictable, we're ahead of the game.