Taking a detour today to share two things and to get your lively feedback. First, a couple years ago I created a roughly 100,000-word fantasy draft kit detailing 300 players' ranges of probable outcomes, rundowns of the most overvalued and undervalued player at each position, new actionable research, "three-dimensional" rankings based on each player's lowest realistic floor and highest realistic ceiling, etc.
It was a lot of work, and I loved doing it. But yeah . . . it was a lot of work.
Since 2016, I've focused almost exclusively on donation-driven rankings. While I intend to keep that going in 2024, I'm also considering creating another comprehensive draft kit, which would be updated throughout the summer. The first kit took about two months to create. But back then I was getting paid to do it. This time around, I'd need to spend weekends and evenings pulling it all together.
This will be a three-step process. The first step is seeing how many of you might want to purchase a $60 FF4W draft kit next summer, similar to the one I described above. I'll post a comment below. Please like that comment if you're, at minimum, intrigued by the idea. No obligation. This is simply a raise of hands to get a sense. If there are only a few of you, then I'll plan keep rolling with the donation-only rankings.
---
Second, while getting crushed in the fantasy playoffs on Sunday, I came up a new kind of fantasy league -- or at least, I think it's new. What's one of the biggest gripes fantasy managers have in the postseason? Injuries. How many of you lost Tyreek Hill at the worst possible time? What if you could have plugged him into your lineup and posted 24.8 points?
Here's the concept: 14-team league, one QB, PPR, $100 FAAB, auction draft (huzzah!). But . . . each manager also starts the season with 30 "insurance dollars" (IDs). Anytime before the opening kickoff in Week 1, any manager can send the commissioner an ID bid for one of their players for up to $30. The three highest bids win an insurance policy (IP) for their designated player.
For example, let's say I'm in a league with Brandon Speaks, Elizabeth Porter, and 11 other competitors. I bid $14 for an IP for my top player, CMC. Brandon bids $12 for an IP on his best player, Justin Jefferson. Elizabeth bids $9 for an IP on her best player, CeeDee Lamb. And let's say we're the three highest bidders that week. Great, we now have an IP. but we also have fewer dollars remaining to bid on other players ahead of Week 2, Week 3, etc.
In this league, a manager can file a claim on an insured player for an upcoming game if two criteria are met: (1) that player has played in at least nine games, and (2) that player is officially out for that game. So if Josh Allen has played in every game heading into Week 12, but is declared out, Elizabeth can file a claim, put him in her starting lineup, and automatically earn his per-game points average. This year, that would be 23.1 points.
But suppose CMC is knocked out for the season in Week 4. Then I've burned nearly half my dollars on a player I can no longer use, because he hasn't cleared the nine-game threshold.
So there are a lot of ways to approach this league. Some managers might roll the dice on some top players early, and then hope they stay healthy long enough for the IP to go into effect. Others might bide their time to see who crosses the nine-game threshold. But . . . will the bidding get more competitive by Weeks 8, 9, 10, etc. as more players qualify for an IP claim if they get hurt?
Basically, how and when do you want to take risks? Because if you wait too long, you might have to bid most of your IDs to get just one player. And here's why that matters: Managers cannot bid on a player who misses their next game. So if I have an uninsured Patrick Mahomes, and if he's questionable heading into Week 14 (the final week that managers can bid on IPs), should I roll the dice and try to lock him down? Or do I play it safer and choose a slightly lesser player I know will be active that week?
Most of the IPs probably wouldn't go into effect. The earliest any of them could be used is in Week 10, and that's only if someone plays in each of the first nine weeks (no byes), and then gets hurt. So these are not get-out-of-jail free cards. Like real insurance policies, they're rarely used. But also like real insurance policies, it's about peace of mind. If you have a high-flying fantasy asset and want to make sure your title hopes aren't dashed because of a freak injury, this league would give you the power to ward off a worst-case scenario.
Now, turning to you. What are your thoughts? What clicks with you? What could be improved? And should I create a pilot league next season so we can take it for spin?