Clicked on my Blogger FF4W site this morning and saw that this is the 2,000th column. That means two things: First, that amounts to about 1.5 million words in the past 11 seasons. Second, I'm on pace to reach 10,000 when I'm in my 90's. So, that's fun.
Speaking of fun, tonight's matchup is loaded with fantasy talent, featuring two teams going in slightly opposite directions. Dallas has lost two straight after looking like a frontrunner for the NFC's #1 seed, and Detroit has won two straight to clinch its first NFC North title in franchise history.
It seems that the Cowboys have been looking for wideout help ever since Amari Cooper departed for Cleveland two years ago. In his final campaign in Dallas, he and CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz formed a trio of dominance. All three had 100+ targets, 800+ yards, and 6+ touchdowns. With Amari gone last year, CeeDee and Schultz stepped up, but Noah Brown and Michael Gallup weren't consistent enough to pick up the slack. And this year, Jake Ferguson has played the Schultz role admirably, while Brandin Cooks has played the Noah Brown role . . . well, with similar inconsistency.
It's strange that Brown has looked better in Houston, and that Cooks -- who effectively led the Texans' offense in two of his previous three seasons -- has at times been invisible in Dallas.
So what is the 2023 Cowboys' fantasy identity? Dak Prescott is the overall QB3, CeeDee is the overall WR2, and Tony Pollard was a clear-cut top-10 RB until fading the past two weeks. Ferguson is a fringe weekly starter. And everyone else is a TD-dependent dart throw. By most NFL standards, it's a great fantasy team. But in Week 17, managers need ultra-reliable producers. Cooks has cracked 11 points only four times, and Gallup only three times. It's a roll of the dice to start anyone other than Dak, CeeDee, or Pollard.
As for Ferguson, 8+ points seems mostly assured. He's hit that mark in four straight outings and in seven of his last nine. Dak has a 103.0 QB rating when targeting him. There's clearly trust, and that's what we want in a high-floor TE.
Meanwhile, although it might sound strange, the Lions have struggled in five of their last six games. They needed a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback at home to vanquish the 3-7 Bears, then lost at home to the hit-or-miss Packers. Then they escaped with a victory over New Orleans, when a promising drive led by backup QB Jameis Winston stalled in Detroit territory. And after crushing Denver, they barely squeaked by an undermanned Vikings team that came within 30 yards of pulling off the upset.
Yes, a win is a win. The Lions deserve to be 11-4, because they *are* 11-4. But Dallas has scored the second-most points and surrendered the fifth-fewest points, while Detroit has scored the fifth-most points and surrendered the ninth-*most* points. In a fairly weak NFC North, the Lions have taken care of business. However, through no fault of their own, they're not as battle-tested as Dallas, which is coming off successive games against the Eagles, Bills, and Dolphins.
Only two of the Lions' opponents this season are better than 8-7. They scored a highly impressive opening-night victory in Kansas City, though the Chiefs were missing Travis Kelce and were still under the assumption that Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore could help lead their passing attack. Their other tough opponent -- the Ravens in Baltimore -- crushed Detroit 38-6.
Tonight probably will mark Detroit's second-toughest matchup. It's a nationally televised game with potentially significant playoff seeding implications. I believe the Cowboys will bounce back, translating to a 16+ point win. While David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should continue to serve as startable fantasy RBs with TD-friendly upside, and while Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are must-starts as always, and while Jameson Williams might be seen as an ascending dart throw, I would advise on keeping expectations relatively low.
That means I'm seeing a rough game for Jared Goff -- probably no more than 210 yards and one score. He's an unstartable, non-top-16 QB from my perspective.
Good luck tonight.