Last night was a reminder that fantasy production isn't necessarily a good indicator of fantasy prowess. Yes, Will Levis finished with an "unstartable" 8.7 points against a tough Steelers D. As I wrote yesterday, this was expected.
But Levis was far better on the field than I expected, and that's the bigger story. In fact, he arguably looked much better than Kenny Pickett, despite operating behind a completely decimated offensive line. Credit the creative play calling on the opening drives. Yes, consider the impact of Pittsburgh's rash of defensive penalties. And sure, playing with Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins helps.
And yet, watching this game, we could see the makings of a future weekly NFL fantasy starter. He looked poised in the pocket despite absorbing an incredible 10 QB hits. For context, only 15 times this season has a defense delivered more hits. That's a little less than twice per week. And the Falcons last week were one of those teams, hitting Levis 11 times.
That's a lot of punishment for any quarterback, especially a rookie making his first two NFL starts. But Levis has persevered, and had Tennessee found the end zone in last night's final moments, his stature would have more accurately matched reality. From my perspective, Levis is the real deal. If you're in a dynasty league, understand that although this franchise has only one pick in the first four rounds (a third rounder) in the 2024 draft, they'll have the third-most cap space. Adding a big- or even medium-named receiver and more o-line depth could -- at least for one season alongside the aging Henry and Hopkins -- turn Levis into a fairly consistent top-16 QB with pop.
Meanwhile, Hopkins would be a solid fantasy acquisition after his disappointing showing. Clearly the #1 WR, and with Treylon Burks potentially suffering a multi-week injury, there's nothing stopping the veteran from seeing double-digit looks in every game. Kyle Phillips, Chris Moore, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are all that's standing in his way, plus a sprinkling of Chigoziem Okonkwo. Levis already has good field vision and a great arm. I'd be comfortable betting on Hopkins.
And yes, Henry once again delivered on Thursday night, despite racking up 26 touches on Sunday. He enjoyed three catches on four targets, giving him seven on eight targets in the last two games. If this Levis-Henry trend continues, the bellcow could net career-high catches, which obviously would keep him comfortably afloat even when he doesn't score.
For Pittsburgh, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both exceeded my expectations, as they ran through a normally run-stuffing defense. Their success took pressure off Pickett, who threw only 30 times. When Diontae Johnson was sidelined for several games this season, 30 throws would have been more than enough to feed George Pickens. Instead, Pickens was the odd man out for the second straight week.
Should managers be concerned about the 22-year-old wideout? Probably not. Johnson isn't a Hopkins-like alpha. There will be weeks when he has a more favorable matchup, and there will be weeks when Pickens does. But again, a successful running game and positive game script were the biggest culprits. When leading or tied this season entering last night, Pickens had only 12 catches for 221 scoreless yards, compared to a 16-301-3 line when trailing. Last year's disparity was even wider. The Steelers' fantasy-playoff schedule includes the Colts, Bengals, and Seahawks. I expect them to play from behind in at least two of them. Pickens should be fine when it counts most.
For the closest-score competition, my 23-13 call was respectable, but undeserving of accolades. Many of you came closer. In fact, six readers were three points away: Tyler Nelson (20-13), Chris Hupe and Robb Perez (17-16), Jay Harper (21-14), Al Rowe (19-14), and Steve Biedenbender (22-17). Joe Minney got within two points with his bold 19-17 call.
But the two winners picked the exact final score: Scott Korn and Paul Levin. They're only the second and third people this season to correctly predict the TNF score, while Scott is this year's first repeat winner, after claiming the prize with Matthew Kennedy in Week 4. Congrats to both champions, who no doubt are off to a good start to their day.