Since taking over the bellcow role in 2018, Derrick Henry has mostly defied Sunday-to-Thursday regression trends that impact most RBs most of the time. He's played in these back-to-back contests four times, averaging 11.4 fantasy points on Sundays and 24.2 points on Thursday. He's earned more touches on Thursday in three of four outings, and also more fantasy points in three of four outings.
In fact, he's averaged 0.64 fantasy points per touch on those Sundays, versus 1.14 points per touch on those Thursdays. So it's not as if the Titans have held him back in the first game, only to unleash him in Game 2. He's simply an anomaly.
And yet, there are some warning signs for the nearly 30-year-old. Henry averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game the previous four seasons. This year he's sitting on 14.8. He netted 24.3 touches per contest the previous four seasons, dropping to 19.3 this year. Basic math shows us he's working harder for his production, despite a sustained uptick in receptions compared to his pre-2022 workload.
Down in the trenches, he's averaging the second-most yards-before-first-contact (2.4) of his career. Despite this, he's compiled a career-low 2.0 yards-after-contact, and the second-worst broken-tackle rate of his career.
One could argue that Henry's downturn has been due to Tennessee's (until last week) largely disappointing passing attack. Maybe defenses are seizing on attempts to lock down the Titans' running game, forcing a hapless quarterback to win with his arm. But if that were the case, rookie Tyjae Spears probably wouldn't be dominating on the ground (5.8 yards per carry). The rookie has actually accrued more fantasy points per touch than Henry has. A lot more. And while that doesn't tell the whole story, it reinforces that Henry isn't quite what he once was. Still great, still a must-start, and also nowhere close to elite.
This column is about tonight's matchup between the Steelers and Titans. But perhaps no fantasy player has more at stake than Henry. And by extension, fantasy managers are hoping that he comes up big against a defense that's yielded the seventh-most yards per carry and, more importantly, the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. And when Tennessee opted not to trade Henry this week, it signaled their all-in commitment to 2023. At 3-4, they're in the thick of the AFC playoff race, particularly if they win tonight.
Rookie Will Levis will try to prove that Sunday's breakout NFL debut was no fluke. I expect him to crash back to earth against a D that's held three straight opponents (Ravens, Rams, and Jaguars) below their season-long scoring averages. The Steelers have a better pass-rush and secondary than the Falcons (Levis's first opponent) have. Also, it's fair to wonder how Levis will respond in temperatures that should creep into the high-30's. He showed sharp production declines late in his college seasons as the weather turned colder, despite (with one exception) facing weaker opponents.
Maybe I'm reaching here. But Levis currently has the most career fantasy points per game of any player in NFL history. It should be obvious that there will be a statistical correction. The question is whether Pittsburgh's defense forces that correction tonight. I think it's more likely than not.
And for the Steelers' offense, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren remain longshots to break through, especially against the Titans' vaunted run D. Maybe one will score. Maybe one will break off a big catch-and-run. But the more likely outcome is about 16 combined points, making at least one -- and perhaps both -- unstartable in 10-team leagues.
Through the air, I'd be more comfortably starting Kenny Pickett than Levis, which says more about what I think of Levis tonight. Pickett will need big plays from George Pickens and/or Diontae Johnson. If Pickett has enough time to throw, he should be able to find both for 25+ combined fantasy points. I'd start Pickens and Johnson with relative confidence.
Final score prediction: the Steelers win 23-13 to keep pace in the extraordinarily competitive AFC North. Leave your prediction below for a chance at glorious prizes that will remain in my warehouse.