Last week I wrote that if the Seahawks don't make the playoffs, Week 11 will prove to be the turning point. That's when Kenneth Walker got hurt and, perhaps more importantly, they lost a winnable game against the suddenly playoff-contending Rams. Seattle entered that contest 6-3, while L.A. was 3-6. The Seahawks led 16-7 midway through the fourth quarter. Drew Lock was at the helm, replacing the injured Geno Smith.
The Lock-led offense picked up only seven yards on nine offensive plays, culminating in an interception. When Smith returned for the final drive, they had a chance to win it, but Jason Myers missed a 55-yarder to seal the defeat. Instead of going up four games on the Rams, Seattle is now clinging to a one-game lead, and they'd lose the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.
Of course, it might not matter, because their next three contests are against Dallas, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. It's entirely possible that they'll be 6-8 with three games to play and a postseason berth practically out of reach.
Here's the thing: Nearly every real-life and fantasy indicator suggests this Seattle offense is worse than last year's. Geno Smith's fantasy points per game have dropped from 17.9 to 13.0. Their RBs netted 20.9 points per game last year, dipping to 19.2 this year (likely with more dips in the coming weeks). D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both down compared to last season, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba is barely ahead of 2022's Marquise Goodwin.
And nowhere has the pain been felt more (for you deep leaguers) than at TE. Last season, at least Noah Fant was a serviceable streamer in 14-team competitions, while Will Dissly had three 12+ point outings in his first four games. But a group that averaged 16.8 points collectively in 2022 has garnered only 8.6 this year. No TE has hit double-digits in any game.
On the field, scoring is down 13%. Yards are down 10%. Third-down conversions are down 16%. Even their kicker, Myers, has gone from elite to human. He converted 34 of 37 field goal attempts last season, including 6-of-6 from 50+. Now he's 25-of-31, including 4-of-8 from 50+.
I'm starting Metcalf tonight because I have to . . . because the next-best options are guys like Michael Wilson, Michael Gallup, Skyy Moore, and Trey Palmer. But as you can tell, for the second straight week, I'm cringing about starting the normally (before this season) must-start Metcalf. You can guess how I feel about Lockett and JSN. Zach Charbonnet is a default must-start RB assuming Kenneth Walker sits, but again, not a high-probability producer. He'll need plenty of dump-offs versus a defense yielding the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points per game.
And Smith is a start-and-hope Superflex QB, where the "hope" is 12-14 points, which sadly (as pointed out above) is right around his season average.
I discussed Seattle's brutal later-season schedule back in October, and why their heaviest hitters should be sold high. I couldn't unload Metcalf for a weekly starter, mostly because he was dealing with injuries and had been looking more like a streamer. So my hope is that he'll benefit from an easier schedule starting in Week 15 (versus Philly's *usually* beatable secondary). Some of you can't afford to wait that long. It's a tough time to depend on Seahawks.
Of course, the Cowboys are in an entirely different boat. They're #1 in points per game, with Dak Prescott dominating as the QB3. He was my preseason QB9. His ADP was QB10, right behind Deshaun Watson. (Watson was my QB16.) So yeah, Dak has exceeded a lot of expectations, and it's all deserved. Tony Pollard finally broke out of his slump two weeks ago, and he and backup Rico Dowdle appear to be in fantasy-playoff form. If healthy, Dowdle once again will be a solid dart throw.
CeeDee Lamb is the overall WR3, while Brandin Cooks -- who opened the season with five unstartable fantasy performances -- has averaged a healthy 12.9 points per game since Week 6. Hard to ignore that kind of turnaround, and his revival has done wonders to a passing attack that had been primarily CeeDee-or-bust.
And managers might as well go all in on Jake Ferguson, the TE11. It'll be hard for Seattle to slow down Dallas, and Ferguson leads the league in TE red-zone targets. He also leads the league in targets inside the 10-yard line.
Final score prediction: Cowboys 38, Seahawks 14. Leave your prediction below, and try not to overthink it. But if you do overthink it and win, please share how you thunk it, because clearly you're doing something right.