Before jumping into today's game (yes, in case you didn't hear, they're playing football on a Friday), let's run through the biggest fantasy takeaway for each Sunday team:
Lions -- It might not seem like much, but deep leaguers need to recognize that Kalif Raymond remains a legit weekly target for Jared Goff. The 29-year-old receiver has been a highly dependable (76.4% catch rate) playmaker, despite a mostly tertiary role. With Jameson Williams still a boom-bust option, Raymond could be an interesting stash in case Williams or Amon-Ra St. Brown gets hurt.
Packers -- I poo-poo'd Christian Watson too soon. One of the most TD-dependent WRs in the NFL, he nonetheless has delivered some big performances, and yesterday was simply huge. Interestingly, he entered Week 12 with 37 targets -- 33 of which came when trailing. His catch rate on those looks? An abysmal 39.4%. If your league hasn't hit the trade deadline, this is the moment to sell high, particularly when the backfield gets healthy, where Jordan Love shouldn't have to throw 40+ times a game.
Cowboys -- Through Week 6, Michael Gallup had 32 targets, while Brandin Cooks (playing one less game) had 23. But in their last five games, Cooks is out-targeting Gallup 25-14. The midseason shift altered each WR's fantasy trajectory, with Cooks now entrenched as a weekly secondary receiving option, and Gallup no better than a tertiary dart throw.
Commanders -- I discussed yesterday that Brian Robinson was risky because he might be pulled by the third quarter in a blowout loss. Sure enough, Robinson managed only one touch after nine minutes remained in the third quarter. Sit/start decisions aren't merely about talent or defensive matchup. They're also about likely game scripts, and how those scripts might impact player usage. With Antonio Gibson active, the Commanders had the "luxury" of working Robinson heavily in the first half, before shifting to catch-up mode with Gibson. It also helped (or rather, hurt) that Robinson was coming off a 24-touch performance four days earlier.
Seahawks -- A disastrous first half, and they never fully recovered, though they made things interesting late in the third quarter. Although managers aren't pleased, Zach Charbonnet looked half-decent in a brutal matchup, and his overall season numbers remain solid. The problem is that Seattle will be on the road against Dallas and San Francisco the next two weeks. Charbonnet is a fantastic stash for the fantasy playoffs. Don't lower his value too much, even when Kenneth Walker returns.
49ers -- CMC wraps up a Sunday-to-Thursday stretch with 50 combined touches, giving him 241 on the year. He's on pace for 372, plus whatever's thrown at him in the playoffs. His touches are, I believe, one of the easiest and most important stats to track in the coming weeks. Managers expect dominance in the fantasy playoffs. But if the Niners wrap up the NFC West title by Week 16, with little chance of improving their seeding, it's possible that he could play a lesser role in the all-important (for fantasy) Week 17 matchup against Washington.
Now for today's matchup: Jets vs. Dolphins. Miami's favored by 9.5 points. I've got them winning by 12+, mostly because I don't trust the 29-year-old Tim Boyle. The journeyman quarterback has three career starts, all in 2021. His first was a respectable 13-10 loss to the eventual 8-9 Browns. Not bad. But he threw for only 77 yards on 23 attempts, with two landing in the hands of a defensive player. His second start was another close loss, this time to the eventual 7-10 Falcons. Boyle was 24-of-34 for 187 yards, one TD, and one pick. It could be argued that Amon-Ra St. Brown largely carried him against one of the league's worst pass defenses. For example, Atlanta yielded the second-most WR fantasy points that season.
Boyle's third start was another loss, this time against the eventual 7-10 Seahawks. Seattle jumped to a 38-7 lead in the third quarter. That's when Boyle "did his thing" and threw for 172 yards in the next 19 game minutes, as the Seahawks' D took its foot off the brakes.
Respectfully, Boyle's ascension to the starting job has almost nothing to do with him, and almost everything to do with mounting pressure to bench Zach Wilson. As I've written before, the Jets botched this season by not securing a better backup for Aaron Rodgers this summer, *knowing* that Wilson wasn't the answer. Then they failed to secure another QB before the trade deadline. Joshua Dobbs was available. He was turning lemons into five-star-hotel lemonade in Arizona. New York could have unloaded a fifth-rounder, and might be 5-5 or 6-4 with a chance of winning today, instead of 4-6 and on the verge of "Aaron Rodgers can't save this team" territory.
Based on likely game scripts, I'm expecting too many abbreviated drives for New York and plenty of scoring opportunities for Miami. Yes, the Jets' D is very good. But when their offense struggles, their D can hold up for only so long. The Dolphins have too many high-functioning playmakers. The Jets can't stop them all.
Predicting a 33-12 Dolphins victory, where Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson probably have 35 game minutes to rack up most of their points. And assuming De'Von Achane sits, keep an eye on Jeff Wilson as a deep-league dart throw.
Leave your prediction below, and then sit back and relax. Or don't. You be you.