Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate. Week 12 kicks off with three fantasy-packed matchups. Let's walk through fantasy predictions for each team.
Lions (-7.5) vs. Packers
I mentioned this the other day in a comment, and it's worth sharing more broadly here. Detroit is eyeing a deep playoff run, and Sunday's dramatic comeback win cements this team's standing as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They're currently the #2 seed in the NFC. In the modern NFL, *most* Super Bowl-caliber teams need two functioning RBs, even if one's an insurance policy. I think the Lions are brilliant to keep David Montgomery's and Jahmyr Gibbs' workloads in check, because if they enter the postseason with both guys healthy, arguably they'd be tough to beat in the first two rounds.
While Green Bay's defense hasn't been exploitable on the ground, they also haven't been "great." Both Montgomery and Gibbs should remain must-start RBs in most leagues, with Gibbs possessing the higher floor thanks to greater usage in the passing game.
Through the air, Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown don't need many words. The former is startable in most leagues; I like him getting 18+ points. And the latter is startable even in four-team leagues (if there is such a thing). Things get trickier with Jameson Williams, who's almost entirely TD-dependent. If you're desperate, there are worse risks to take. And as for Sam LaPorta, don't lose faith. Despite coming off his worst fantasy performance, the rookie should hit 8+ points, and if that's not enough for you, then clearly look elsewhere. But I'd start him as a top-12 TE, which back in Week 1 would have looked pretty good.
For Green Bay, the almost season-long backfield chaos remains chaotic. It's AJ Dillon or bust with Aaron Jones and rookie Emanuel Wilson both banged up. The good news is that if you have Dillon, you've got a 15+ touch starter, as long as the game doesn't get out of hand early. But the Lions have yielded the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points per game, and a quick scan of their opponents reminds us that Detroit's faced a lot of normally high-fantasy-producing RBs. When these teams last met, Jones had a 5-18-0 rushing line, while Dillon had a 5-11-0 rushing line. So yeah, embrace Dillon's volume, but who knows if he'll crack nine points.
Through the air, Jayden Reed is almost officially Jordan Love's #1 receiver, followed closely by Romeo Doubs. Christian Watson isn't startable in any league. Reed is a must-start in 14-team leagues. Beyond that, I'm wary of betting on Love or Doubs, or for that matter, TE Luke Musgrave. Presumably, only one receiver will hit double-digits, and good luck figuring that out.
Cowboys (-11) vs. Commanders
Who's leading the league in passing yards? Sam Howell, of course. It's a crazy year, as always. That said, Dallas should clamp down on Washington. Brian Robinson is coming off a 24-touch performance Sunday and could be phased out by the third quarter if this game gets out of hand. We can overthink this, or we can accept what's in plain view. Washington's yielding the most points in the league. Howell almost assuredly will have to throw plenty. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are solid deep-league streamers, but not much more. Robinson probably will finish outside the top 20, making him merely a fringe starter in 12-team leagues. Logan Thomas is a dart throw.
For Dallas, one can sense a 38+ point outburst. Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb are all obvious starts. Brandin Cooks and Josh Ferguson are terrific streamers. Michael Gallup is a half-decent desperation streamer. And superflexers with no #2 QB could--and I mean this, *could*--start Cooper Rush if you don't have a reliable 10+ point option. Worst-case, you and your friends will be talking about that bold move for years.
There's not much more to say. If you believe this game will be close, ignore the previous paragraphs. Otherwise, plan accordingly.
49ers (-7) at Seahawks
If Seattle misses the playoffs, Week 11 probably will be the biggest reason why: blowing a nine-point fourth quarter lead, losing Kenneth Walker, and losing Geno Smith. Tonight's contest would have been quite winnable with their core playmakers healthy. Instead, we have to downgrade D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Simply put, Drew Lock is a downgrade at QB, and against the Niners, he might not crack 175 yards. A bunch of that volume might flow through Zach Charbonnet on dump-offs.
Charbonnet seems like a must-start, despite the tough assignment. And in deep leagues, Metcalf and Lockett are worth flyers in case one of them scores or breaks off a big play. But the Niners' D has been playing on another level since coming off their Week 9 bye. Managers should hope Charbonnet, Metcalf, and Lockett each hit 10+ points. Realistically, I expect at least one to tank.
Now, this doesn't mean the 49ers will light up the scoreboard. As I pointed out about 10 days ago, Seattle has clamped down on opposing WRs since Jamal Adams returned. On Sunday, Cooper Kupp had only one catch for 11 yards on 18 snaps before exiting, elevating Puka Nacua to clear-cut #1 status. Against the Seahawks' D, teams haven't been able to elevate more than one WR per game. So while Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are startable, consider the strong possibility that the Seahawks' defensive trend will continue, and that either Aiyuk or Deebo will falter.
Elsewhere, George Kittle is an obvious must-start. No tight end has dominated as much as he has the past four games. Can he keep it up? No, probably not. But even a 4-50-0 receiving line is acceptable in the TE slot, and that's likely Kittle's floor.
And while nothing needs to be said about CMC, I'd be at least a little wary of starting Brock Purdy. Why? How? He's coming off one of the most flawless passing games this league has ever seen: a 333-3-0 passing line with an 84% completion percentage. A perfect 158.3 QB rating. And yet, for the same reasons just mentioned, I'm expecting the Seahawks to at least somewhat contain San Francisco's passing attack. Purdy is more of a top 12-16 QB this week.
A final word on CMC: He had 26 touches on Sunday, and I doubt he'll exceed 18 tonight -- still enough to do damage, but probably not enough to elite or even near-elite. Elijah Mitchell is still the backup, at least for now; he ran the ball four times on eight snaps in Week 11, compared to Jordan Mason's zero touches on two snaps. Mitchell could see 7-9 touches this evening, making him an acceptable deep-league dart throw.