I'll be on the road this morning, so won't be around to reply to most comments/questions after 8:00pm or 9:00pm Eastern. Love that folks frequently step up to share their thoughts on sit/start dilemmas. Continue to jump in today if you feel compelled.
If you have questions about starting Justin Jefferson, the latest (as you probably know) is that he's certifiably questionable, probably with no more clarity until tomorrow. If you're in a deep league with no likely double-digit WR/flex option -- in other words, if you're in Jefferson-or-bust mode -- strongly consider dropping a non-top-40 WR for K.J. Osborn or Darnell Mooney. Or if it's a flex slot, with D'Onta Foreman doubtful, you could add Roschon Johnson if he's available.
That'll buy you about 36 hours to make a final decision. If Jefferson's good to go, great. If not, then at least you can plug someone in.
And if you *do* have a pretty good WR/flex option to use in place of Jefferson, then it all comes down to your risk tolerance. No one can address that better than you can. Take maybe 7-12 points today, or hold out for a chance at much more with Jefferson? The answer: You know what you're willing to bet on, and what you're not willing to bet on. Trust your instincts, have a back-up plan, and live with the consequences.
For DraftKings DFS 50/50 lineups, my recommended 1:00pm Eastern slate features Baker Mayfield, Derrick Henry, Tajae Spears, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Nico Collins, Cade Otton, Tank Dell, and the Titans DST. Could be a complete bust if Tampa Bay's and/or Houston's offenses tank. But with Rachaad White potentially not at 100%, I'm expecting the Bucs to lean more heavily on Mayfield and his top three receivers. And the Panthers have surrendered the second-most RB fantasy points per game. With Tennessee in win-or-it's-all-over mode, I'm anticipating 28+ combined touches for Henry and Spears.
A warning that while most of my 4:00pm Eastern slates have hit (and often hit big) this season, my 1pm recommendations have frequently missed. Can't explain it. Or maybe I can: More games, more variables, compounded by more questionable tags that force me to pick "safer" players early in the A.M. to lock in guys who'll definitely play.
For the later-afternoon contests, I've got Josh Allen, Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Khalil Shakir, Michael Mayer, Greg Dortch, and the Browns DST. All in on the Allen feeding Diggs 12+ times versus a secondary giving up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. That's why the inexpensive Shakir is a solid add-on. The Ford/Hunt hedge makes sense with a rookie QB and a beatable Denver defensive line. And with Michael Wilson still sidelined and Marquise Brown hobbled, the even cheaper Dortch could be one of the best DFS bargains.
Good luck today.