Fantasy managers with a WR or TE on a particular team need reliability from that team's QB. We need some understanding of our player's baseline expectations and optimal ceiling. When Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen are healthy, Allen should get his points. The same for Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, etc.
But it doesn't apply only to elite performers. We want to know that guys like Rashee Rice and Brandin Cooks have a shot a decency-to-glory. Streamers are major sit/start pressure points. Do we roll the dice? Well, if the receiver and his quarterback have developed a good rapport, it goes a long way to instilling confidence.
That's why Joshua Dobbs' flop on Monday Night Football is so potentially devastating for managers with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and even (in deeper leagues) K.J. Osborn. Not only did Dobbs play well in his first three games replacing Kirk Cousins (and Jaren Hall). He also gave managers a realistic expectation that at least two of his receivers could be fed -- that at least two would be startable in most leagues.
Sure, there were yellow flags entering last night, though nothing that could have signaled almost complete disaster. 46% of his fantasy points had come with his legs, rather than with his throwing arm. He had generated less than 12 fantasy points per game through the air. But it was barely enough for Jordan Addison, who'd hit 10.2 and 10.9 points in two games -- streamable in some leagues. Meanwhile, Brandon Powell offered a deep-league spark for desperate managers (yes, I used him once), though we're talking about real desperation.
And of course, T.J. Hockenson did just fine. In Week 10, he did more than fine, racking up 30.4 points. With Cousins out for the year and Jefferson awaiting his return, Hockenson remained a must-start TE.
But Dobbs, who'd already been struggling with turnovers, threw four picks last night, prompting head coach Kevin O'Connell to publicly open the door to a quarterback change when the Vikes return from their Week 13 bye. If he's benched, then we'll see either Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall. While it's all conjecture, I believe it'll come down to Dobbs or Mullens. Minnesota's still squarely in the playoff hunt at 6-6. Hall is the definition of "raw." Mullens is the definition of "serviceable." O'Connell probably will play it safe rather than entrusting his team's fortunes on a rookie with a relatively weak arm.
Mullens doesn't have a great arm either, which is why managers with Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson are facing a huge dilemma down the stretch. While Hockenson should be "fine" regardless, managers need more than that in the fantasy playoffs. And how can someone like Mullens (or Hall) feed Jefferson alongside Addison? It seems inconceivable, even with a remaining schedule that on paper is pretty passer-friendly.
If Dobbs remains the starter, at least we'll have some understanding of his upside and his limitations. He and his middling backfield (though Alexander Mattison has stepped up recently) should generate enough scoring opportunities to keep Jefferson and Hockenson afloat, and perhaps (on a good day) give Addison some love.
But all bets are off if Mullens takes the helm, and things could get mighty messy of O'Connell turns to Hall. Managers need to prepare now for the strong possibility that only Jefferson and Hockenson will be startable through the air, and that both (especially Jefferson) should be downgraded for the fantasy playoffs. Because if O'Connell isn't sold on Dobbs, a bye week probably won't dampen his doubts.
One other quick observation from last night: While D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet appear locked in as highly targeted receivers for a motivated Justin Fields (who's likely playing for a 2024 starting job), Roschon Johnson seems to have taken over (for now) the backfield starting job. With D'Onta Foreman sidelined, Johnson did enough to stay on the field. Foreman is the team's biggest RB, while Herbert is the smallest.
So while no one knows how these three will be utilized when Foreman returns, the Bears are 4-8 and *essentially* playing for next season. If I had to bet on a Chicago RB to lead that team in fantasy points the rest of the way, I'd bet on the rookie. Foreman will be a free agent in March, and Herbert has one more year on his contract. Presumably, the Bears will want to see what they have in Johnson heading into the 2024 draft.