Yesterday's AFC East battle played out largely as expected, with one major exception: Tua Tagovailoa's muted performance. He's now exceeded 17.6 fantasy points only once in his last five starts, and only twice in his last eight starts. In fact, in those eight games since Miami obliterated Denver in Week 3, Tua has collected only 14 touchdowns while committing 11 turnovers. It is largely what keeps him out of near-elite conversations -- that, and (through no fault of his own) a highly effective running game. Dolphin RBs have 19 rushing scores.
So while Miami's #2 in points per game, one wouldn't know it based solely on Tua's numbers. Compare that to Patrick Mahomes, who also doesn't have any rushing scores, and whose Chiefs are averaging only the 14th most points per game. But . . . K.C.'s running backs have only four rushing TDs. On the whole, scoring opportunities run through Mahomes, which is largely why he's the QB7 in fantasy points per game, while Tua is outside the top 14.
Elsewhere yesterday, we are reminded of the Jets' historic offensive futility, stemming primarily from an o-line in disarray and a QB situation that (as I've discussed repeatedly) didn't have to be this bad. When you're starting Tim Boyle in a must-win, nationally televised game, your franchise has hit rock bottom. These two teams will run it back in three weeks. Aaron Rodgers reportedly hopes to return in December -- maybe in time for this rematch? I don't see it happening. The Jets need to beat Atlanta and Houston to remain faintly in the Wild Card hunt. Fantasy managers should brace for the strong probability that Breece Hall and/or Garrett Wilson will be borderline unstartable in the fantasy playoffs.
And now a rundown of the biggest fantasy storylines for the remaining Week 12 NFL games. But first, a huge congratulations to Cody Anderson, who predicted a 34-13 Dolphins victory. And as you might have figured out, that was the exact score. Cody joins Sergei McNulty, Paul Levin, and Scott Korn as the only community members to pick a correct final score this season. Cue celebratory music.
Oh, and I came in second, for what that's worth (not much) after predicting 33-12. Was hoping to co-win this thing two weeks in a row. Instead, Cody will try to do the near-impossible and take home the prize once again next Thursday.
OK, here's the rundown:
Saints (-1.5) at Falcons -- Entering his previous game, Bijan Robinson hadn't had more than 14 carries since Week 2. Then Atlanta fed him 22 times on the ground. Is that a sign that they're ready to turn him loose? And with Michael Thomas sidelined, will Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed be the biggest beneficiary. Or . . . can sixth-round rookie A.T. Perry take a big step forward?
Bengals (+2.5) vs. Steelers -- Taking Cincy to win. Jake Browning looked pretty good (all things considered) in relief of Joe Burrow last week. Will his presence doom Ja'Marr Chase and (when he returns) Tee Higgins? Meanwhile, Pittsburgh just fired its offensive coordinator. Will shifts in play-calling spell good news for George Pickens and Diontae Johnson?
Titans (-3.5) vs. Panthers -- I picked up Tennessee's DST 10 days ago for this game. They'll have to slow down Adam Thielen, who's accounted for 41% of Carolina's WR/TE receptions. He's also caught an incredible 78.4% of his targets, and his quarterbacks (primarily Bryce Young) have enjoyed a 111.6 QB rating when targeting him. The Titans are yielding the sixth-most WR fantasy points per game. By most accounts, it should be a huge day for Thielen. But let's see if the Titans successfully lock him down, forcing the often shaky Young to look elsewhere. And for the Titans' offense, it's still all about Derrick Henry. Is he an automatic start, or merely a "start and hope"?
Colts (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers -- For fantasy running backs, volume often is the key, and Jonathan Taylor's volume is now uber-high. His advanced metrics remain elite. But . . . he's averaging a career-low 1.7 yards-before-first-contact, or nearly a yard below his mark in each of the last two seasons. This might be the difference between elite production and top 13-24 RB production. For Tampa Bay, as always, how long will Rachaad White remain their clear-cut starter? I believe it'll be as long as the 4-6 Bucs are in the playoff hunt.
Giants (+3.5) vs. Patriots -- Taking New York to win, and not because they have a better record (3-8 for the Giants vs. 2-8 for the Patriots, which seems like we're living in an alternate universe). What I wrote about Rachaad White applies even more to Saquon Barkley, who cannot afford to get seriously hurt knowing a potentially sizable payday awaits him after this season. Will the Giants overwork him down the stretch? And for New England, Rhamondre Stevenson earned his most carries (and overall touches) of the season in his last game. Is *this* a sign of things to come, or will the similarly efficient / inefficient Zeke Elliott cap Stevenson's ceiling?
Texans (+1.5) vs. Jaguars -- If Houston wins (and I believe they will), they'll take over first place in the AFC South. Simply incredible. Devin Singletary is one reason why, as he's been playing on another level since Dameon Pierce went down. With Pierce expected to return, the major question is whether he'll be involved enough to significantly lower Singletary's ceiling, or if Pierce will be a distant 1B running back. For Jacksonville, Evan Engram still hasn't scored this season. He entered Week 12 tied for 42nd among TEs in red-zone targets. I'm intrigued with his untapped upside.
Broncos (-1.5) vs. Browns -- Denver started the year 1-5. They've won four straight, including stunning victories over the Chiefs and Bills. I've highlighted Samaje Perine several times in recent weeks. The veteran is tied for third in RB receiving yards, but is the only top-50 fantasy RB who hasn't found the end zone. Perine is a fascinating fantasy wild card. For Cleveland, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson needed 43 pass attempts to feed two receivers last weekend. It doesn't seem realistic that he can sustain that volume. Can we trust Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and/or David Njoku?
Rams (-2.5) at Cardinals -- Assuming Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp will be full go's, the 4-6 Rams will attempt to mount a playoff push. Kupp's last his 7+ fantasy points five games ago. All eyes should be on the veteran wideout and whether he can still be a trusted weekly asset. And for Arizona, which receiver will step up as Kyler Murray's #1?
Raiders (+9.5) vs. Chiefs -- Picking Vegas to remain competitive, with the expectation that at 5-6, they will throw Josh Jacobs at a defense surrendering 4.7 yards per RB carry. As bad as Jacobs has looked on the ground, with a rookie QB at the helm, we could see 28+ touches for Jacobs if this game is close. And for K.C., after a litany of dropped passes doomed their chances against Philly, we're about to find out whether Justin Watson is atop the WR depth chart, if Rashee Rice can take a step forward, or if another WR will get his opportunity.
Eagles (-3) vs. Bills -- DeVonta Smith played the alpha role last week, as A.J. Brown was essentially locked down. Will it be Brown's turn, or will Smith -- who's been revving up the last three games -- continue to look like the top-10 WR he was last season? And for Buffalo, is Gabe Davis completely droppable? Targets and touchdowns kept him afloat the first half of the season. Khalil Shakir has more targets, catches, and touchdowns the past three weeks. We'll see if Shakir further cements his standing as Josh Allen's preferred #2 WR.
Chargers (+3.5) vs. Ravens -- Taking L.A. to win. Consider how great Baltimore's defense has looked -- but just as importantly, consider how many injured and/or backup QBs they've played against. The x-factor is Austin Ekeler, who I've raised concerns about for weeks. He looks slower, and some of his advanced metrics suggest he's nowhere close to the RB he was as recently as two years ago. Fantasy managers expect elite production, including through the air. Let's see if he can step up in a must-win game. And for Baltimore, OBJ is on a role (relatively speaking). A fluke, or is he poised to serve as a weekly fantasy starter going forward?
Vikings (-3) vs. Bears -- If Justin Jefferson returns, will Joshua Dobbs be able to feed him the way Kirk Cousins did? Or could the entire receiving corps take a hit? And for Chicago, how will this backfield shake out? It's no longer safe territory for managers seeking even a semi-reliable streaming RB.