In March Madness, it's "survive and advance." In fantasy football, it's "don't get hurt." And last night, two big-name players got hurt, reminding us (not that we needed reminding) how quickly managers' fortunes can change in an instant.
Head coach John Harbaugh believes Mark Andrews has suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Absolutely devastating. Fantasy-wise, many managers naturally will turn their attention to Isaiah Likely. But not so fast. This is a far different offense than the one Likely took by storm (relatively speaking) as a rookie, when Demarcus Robinson and Devin Duvernay were the Ravens' top-two WRs for most of the season. Robinson, now with the Rams, had his first target of the season a little over a week ago, while Duvernay has caught only four passes for Baltimore. Simply put, last year's receiving corps was essentially Andrews, Likely, a mostly injured Rashod Bateman, and a bunch of backup-caliber WRs.
These two things are true: Likely is talented, and he's also a fringe fantasy starter. As highlighted in yesterday's column, this is as run-heavy an offense as any in the NFL. As long as Baltimore's three starting WRs remain healthy, Likely realistically won't average more than 4-5 targets per game. There are too many mouths to feed, and Jackson isn't a buffet-style quarterback. Most of his receivers get appetizers. Insert more analogies here: ____________.
Meanwhile, OBJ was the big winner with a 4-116-0 receiving line. I whiffed on him this summer, believing he was all but finished as a nearly 31-year-old with a growing durability concerns. In fairness, he's the WR64 in points per game. But he's certainly making a play as Jackson's favorite WR target. He and Nelson Agholor (and a little bit of Bateman) capped Zay Flowers' ceiling. Of course, Flowers could have had a much bigger night if not for an ill-timed (and poorly called?) penalty. But it's worth noting that the rookie has exceeded 13 fantasy points only once since Week 2.
When I draft WRs, I want someone who's either (a) a team's unquestioned #1, or (b) a top-two receiver in a pass-friendly offense. This is why I faded OBJ and Flowers (and of course, Bateman). And while Flowers fans might point out that he's currently the overall WR25, I'd highlight that he's the WR43 in points per game. WR43's generally don't help managers win fantasy titles -- or if they do, they need to have the kind of boom that makes them worth the risk. Flowers hasn't shown that boom since Week 1.
On the ground, it was again all Gus Edwards. And while some of you might have felt miserable about starting Keaton Mitchell (a minor disaster), the silver lining is that he came on strong and salvaged 5.1 points, which is better than the negative points he'd racked up early on. The more important silver lining is that he earned nine touches, and probably would have collected more if the score had been closer. He's the 1B to Edwards' 1A. Not bad heading into the stretch run of the fantasy regular season.
For the Bengals, Joe Burrows reportedly heard a pop in his wrist, but he's been diagnosed with only a sprain. Whew. Actually, not "whew." It's his throwing hand. Any missed time obviously would change the calculus of starting any Bengals. Ja'Marr Chase barely escaped with 9.2 points, while Joe Mixon probably played his best football since hitting 55.1 fantasy points last year in Week 9. He's now scored in four straight.
But . . . as impressive as Jake Browning looked in essentially his first NFL appearance at age 27 (he threw one pass in Week 1, and that's it for his career), Cincy doesn't have a cakewalk schedule, particularly during the fantasy playoffs (@Steelers in Week 16 and @Chiefs in Week 17). If Burrow's back by then, okay. Otherwise, managers would deserve to feel anxious about trusting anyone as a must-start option.
Oh, and Tanner Hudson had another decent showing: 8.9 points. Not exceptional, but with Irv Smith not even seeing a target, it's safe to slot Hudson as a top-26 TE the rest of the way, with or without Burrow. The rest depends on scoring opportunities, meaning Hudson probably won't be top-16 the rest of the way.
Final score prediction! The actual score was 34-20. Scott Korn predicted 30-20, and Jason Ediger picked 34-24. Both were four points off, and that's good enough for both to declare victory. Congratulations, Scott and Jason.
But wait: there's one more winner. Yes, finally I can add my name to the 2023 Closest-Score Winners Circle after picking the Ravens to win 32-22. Not sure what feels better: co-winning, or sharing the prize with two brilliant minds like Scott and Jason. Let's call it a tie.