This evening's AFC North battle obviously has major fantasy implications for many of us. Two high-upside quarterbacks, three startable running backs, probably five or six startable wideouts / tight ends. There's a lot at stake, and a lot of points on the table.
Starting with Cincy, beginning with his 2020 rookie campaign, Joe Burrow's fantasy points per game grew from 17.4 to 19.6 to 21.9. This season, he's far better than his stats (15.4 fantasy points per game), in large part because he played hurt for the first month. He's hit 21.9+ points in four of his last five outings, and even with Tee Higgins still sidelined, Burrow should generate enough volume tonight to be a must-start option.
And volume has been key for Burrow, because I believe only Sam Howell is averaging more throws per contest. The Bengals' franchise QB has been tasked with airing it out, and lately he's delivered. Assuming Baltimore's offense (#5 in points per game) keeps up the pressure, Burrow could end tonight on pace for 700+ throws on the year.
And once again, Ja'Marr Chase is a no-brainer. So is Tyler Boyd in most leagues. The question, then, is whether we can count on Trenton Irwin, who managed an 81% snap share last weekend. I'm wary of betting on a team's #3 WR regardless, and Irwin's TD on Sunday doesn't fill me with confidence. He's a 27-year-old with 31 career catches. The good news is that he's scored five times, garnering confidence from Burrow in the red zone. The bad news is that Baltimore's D is third-best in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage (only a 34.6% success rate for opposing offenses).
That also spells trouble for Cincy's trio of tight ends, which essentially split snaps last week. Irv Smith is the name, and Drew Sample is the seasoned veteran. I hadn't realized 'til now that Tanner Hudson is 29. Yes, he's been getting looks. But presumably he'll need to score tonight to be useful even in deep leagues. Assuming he gets only 20-24 snaps, there's no good reason to feel comfortable starting him.
On the ground is Joe Mixon, who I believe might not return next season. Yes, a shocking claim. the team has an easy out on his contract if they want to use it. Otherwise, he's signed for one more season. Either way, the 27-year-old Mixon peaked in Cincy's Super Bowl run two years ago. Since then, his yards-after-first-contact and broken-tackle rate have dipped, while his dropped passes have spiked.
Baltimore's been above-average against the run while surrendering only four rushing scores. Mixon is a "start him because you pretty much have to" play, because most managers don't have three workhorse running backs.
For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson's breakout 2019 campaign seems like a distant memory. He netted an insane 27.7 fantasy points per game that year. That clip dropped to 22.2 in 2020, 20.0 in 2021, 19.7 in 2022, and 18.3 this season. Not ideal. It's particularly concerning that he's mustered 13.0 points or less in each of his last three outings.
When will vintage Jackson return? Probably not anytime soon, though he could flash now and then. Still, he's nowhere close to a sure thing tonight. One issue is Gus Edwards, who's run it in eight times from near the goal line -- with seven of those TDs coming in the last four weeks. Jackson's gotten hurt the last two seasons, spoiling the Ravens' postseason plans, including last postseason versus the Bengals, when Tyler Huntley was forced to helm the offense.
As long as Edwards and Mitchell keep doing their thing, Jackson can operate more as a glorified game manager. Baltimore's second-to-last in the league in pass attempts per game. The Bengals are yielding a generous 5.0 yards per carry -- second-highest in the league. As long as their defense can keep Cincy somewhat in check (easier said than done, but doable), I'd expect Edwards and Mitchell to combine for 25+ touches.
That leaves about 18-22 throws to Baltimore WRs and TEs, of which they should catch around 12-15. You see what I'm getting at. Mark Andrews is the only automatic start. And with the low-ceiling Rashod Bateman enjoying a slight target uptick the last two weeks, there's less room for Zay Flowers or OBJ to shine, especially against a defense producing more interceptions (12) than receiving TDs (11).
Predicting a Scorigami for the final score: Ravens win 32-22. Leave your prediction below, and if you tempt the Scorigami gods like I have -- and if you win -- then I will give you the loudest shout-out possible (that's right: your name in all caps).