No overseas football today, so we all have time to overthink our lineups. Huzzah. Justin Jefferson, Dallas Goedert, and Dameon Pierce are still out. De'Von Achane and Nico Collins are expected to return. Collins has enjoyed two monster performances, most recently in Week 4. Both times, C.J. Stroud threw for 300+ yards. In the last four weeks, the opposing Cardinals have yielded the fourth-fewest WR fantasy points per game. I *believe* this matchup will mean the difference between winning and losing for many of you.
Meanwhile, it's anyone's guess how Miami will operate against the Raiders. An easy victory? Probably, though this is the NFL, so anything's possible. But I'll be curious to see if Jeff Wilson gets more run than usual. If the Dolphins are up big by the third quarter, I'd be shocked if they continue to run Raheem Mostert (extensive injury history) and/or Achane (coming off a serious injury). This team is legitimately playing for February for the first time in years (decades?). Wilson has become an expendable insurance policy, rather than a critically important piece to the backfield.
For recommended DraftKings DFS 50/50 lineups, my early slate has Stroud, Aaron Jones, Brian Robinson, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Jahan Dotson (yes, I believe he'll snap back), Dalton Schultz, Quentin Johnston, and the Cowboys DST. As you can see, I'm betting big on (roughly) 70+ points for Stroud-Collins-Dell-Schultz. Last week, Stroud-Noah Brown-Dell-Schultz combined for 73.2. The week before, that foursome combined for 125.7. In DFS, we want predictability. With Brown sidelined, it's a safe bet that most of Houston's offense (not all, thanks to Devin Singletary) will run through the passing game.
Elsewhere, I'm banking on Jones to find running room against a Chargers D that's yielding the fourth-most RB fantasy points per game, including the third-most these last four weeks. And with Antonio Gibson sidelined, it's hard to argue with Robinson vs. the reeling Giants. Expecting plenty of offensive possessions for Washington, thanks to a rough one-dimensional offense for New York, which might end up with more punts than first downs.
For the later-afternoon slate, gimme Brock Purdy, CMC, Darrell Henderson, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Conklin, and the Bills DST. Last weekend, my late-afternoon lineup finished in the top 4% of tournaments and the top 3% of 50/50s. There are plenty of high-priced guys to target (including Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp). I'd rather focus on the Niners against a defense surrendering the fifth-most opposing WR fantasy points per game, and then backfill with a bunch of 8+ point guys who are high-probability targets / ball-carriers near the end zone.
Good luck today.