With news that Joe Burrow is out for the season, a heaping bowl of trouble confronts many managers facing difficult uphill climbs on Sunday . . . and beyond. Remember that there are breakout candidates on waivers every week. If you need a higher ceiling, the probabilities show that WRs are better bets than RBs. Home teams are 84-67, meaning your home DST might have a slight edge over a comparably talented (depending on matchups) road DST.
There's an endless supply of intel, and not enough time to process it all. So let's keep things simple on Saturday, as always, with a rundown of each team's most notably storyline heading into Week 11's remaining games.
Browns (-1) vs. Steelers -- On Wednesday, the day after fifth-round rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson turned 24, Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the rest of the season. As I've written too many times to count these past 20 months, Cleveland risked their future for a shot at Watson-led glory, and it probably would prove disastrous. We're going to find out these next two months if Thompson-Robinson can be a "good" NFL starter. The odds are stacked against him. But if he can help lead this team to the playoffs -- beginning with a strong showing against Pittsburgh -- well . . . stranger things have happened. And for the Steelers, can Jaylen Warren sustain the magic that elevated him to the starting job this week?
Lions (-7.5) vs Bears -- The return of Justin Fields, and with it, the clock starts ticking on his remaining games this season. Will he look like a franchise-elevating QB while helping fantasy managers who've waited patiently for his return? And for Detroit, David Montgomery has caught only six passes on 10 targets in six games. Despite leading the league in rushing yards per game, he's become more TD-dependent than some people realize.
Packers (+3) vs. Chargers -- Taking Green Bay to win, which might seem a little odd. But I'm not convinced that L.A. can keep pace with what I expect will be a run-heavy Green Bay game script. All eyes should be on Aaron Jones, and whether he can return to greatness. And all eyes also should be on Austin Ekeler, the greatest undrafted RB in history, who also happens to be languishing as a rusher. It's a battle between two underperforming 28-year-olds.
Dolphins (-13.5) vs. Raiders -- The point spread seems absurd, especially considering Vegas's respectable 5-5 record. But their two-dimensional offense under Jimmy G. is now merely one-dimensional under Aidan O'Connell. I'm watching to see if the rookie QB once again feeds Davante Adams, or if Miami will successfully force O'Connell to throw elsewhere. And for the 'Fins, De'Von Achane is expected to make his return. Honestly, it's anyone's guess how he, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson will fare. But it's a safe bet that at least two of them will hit 13+ points.
Commanders (-8.5) vs. Giants -- Saquon Barkley vs. Washington. It's not much more complicated than that. Tommy DeVito can do only so much, and apparently it's not much in an offense that's missing Darren Waller, and which distributes the ball too equitably for any New York WR to stand out. For the Commanders, with Antonio Gibson doubtful, rookie Chris Rodriguez could see some action behind Brian Robinson. Last week I started Rico Dowdle out of desperation, but also because Dallas likely would dominate. If you believe Washington will dominate, there's good reason to take a flyer on Rodriguez, who could be a touch machine in the fourth quarter.
Cowboys (-10.5) at Panthers -- At their best, Dallas will sack Bryce Young nine times and force three turnovers. At their worst (see: loss to Arizona) . . . well, let's not go that far. The previously mentioned Dowdle again is an intriguing deep-league streamer, and with Tony Pollard looking more mediocre than managers want to see, Dowdle might actually out-produce him this weekend. For Carolina, it's Adam Thielen or bust. The aged veteran has been "discovered" by defenses lately, which might help explain his dramatic production drop in recent weeks.
Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Titans -- The Jags are one of the NFL's most enigmatic teams. They're sitting at 6-3, but their franchise QB has looked sub-par almost the entire year. Assuming the Titans' run D can at least keep Travis Etienne in check (under 80 yards rushing), it might be up to Trevor Lawrence to lead this offense. Let's see if he can snap out of his fantasy funk. And speaking of funks, Derrick Henry might or might not be slowing down, but Tyjae Spears is speeding up, especially through the air. The rookie has back-to-back nine-touch outings. He's a legit dart throw.
Texans (-5.5) vs. Cardinals -- This point spread is either on the money or about 20 points off. At their best, Houston can be a playoff-bound team that no one wants to play. With Noah Brown out, C.J. Stroud loses one of his top receivers. But let's see if Devin Singletary can dominate for a second game in a row. And for Arizona, I'm curious who will become Kyler Murray's #1 WR . . . or if he'll spread the ball around to his three top WRs and Trey McBride.
49ers (-11.5) vs. Buccaneers -- The point spread seems high, but I'm a sucker for the Niners at home in an important NFC matchup. Will Deebo Samuel prove that he's still a must-start WR, or should we be wary of trusting him for the fantasy playoffs? And once again, I'm obsessed with Rachaad White, whose ugly 3.3 YPC and equally ugly 1.2 yards-after-first-contact would be benchable if anyone else were ready to step up.
Bills (-7) vs. Jets -- Imagine it's August, and you learn that the Jets will start this season 4-5, and the Bills 5-5. The former is understandable in the context of Aaron Rodgers' opening-drive injury in Week 1. But the latter continues to confound and amaze. Latavius Murray is the wild card in Buffalo's backfield -- a well-worn veteran who somehow no other team wanted to keep around. And Dalvin Cook has only two receptions in his last five games, while Breece Hall has been getting bottled up near the line of scrimmage in most of the last four games. Something has to give. Running Hall early and often hasn't been working. Maybe Cook will get a little more run.
Rams (-1) vs. Seahawks -- The return of Matthew Stafford makes this a winnable contest for the Rams, which are 3-6 and essentially hoping for a miracle this season. Let's see if Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua can get back on track. Meanwhile, rookie Zach Charbonnet tied a career high with 10 touches last weekend. Is he a threat to Kenneth Walker, or can Walker remain a must-start RB regardless of whether he scores?
Broncos (-2.5) vs. Vikings -- A tough game to call with Justin Jefferson questionable. I'm assuming Denver's improved defense is here to stay, at least for now. Russell Wilson has five TD passes in his last two games, and also hasn't thrown for 200+ yards since Week 4. He's a fantasy anomaly -- a distinctly post-prime player who's somehow the overall QB13. And for the Vikes, if Jefferson returns, can he dominate as he did when Kirk Cousins was under center?
Chiefs (2.5) vs. Eagles -- Taking the home team on Monday night, and specifically banking on Rashee Rice to extend his "streak" of five straight games with 8.7+ points. But . . . his target share needs to improve to become a clear weekly starter by the fantasy playoffs. He's averaging barely 4.5 looks per game. And D'Andre Swift has slowed down significantly since a two-game outburst in September. In six games since, he has 90 carries for only 306 yards (3.3 YPC). It doesn't help that his receptions have dropped off in recent weeks. This is a situation to monitor for an historically low-volume "lead" RB with durability issues, and with the Eagles expecting to play 21 or 22 games this season.