When a Super Bowl rematch features two teams that remain Super Bowl frontrunners, one would expect a high level of play. Instead, we witnessed only phenomenal running from the two lead RBs, strong play from one of the game's most underutilized "great" receivers, and a brilliantly executed first half by the defending champions' defense. I might be missing something, but that's pretty much it.
On a personal note, in my league I started Isiah Pacheco, D'Andre Swift, and DeVonta Smith. Was down about 30 points. Probably shouldn't have won. But Swift played his best football since Week 3, and it also happened to be Smith's turn through the air, thanks largely to CB L’Jarius Sneed locking down A.J. Brown. Two weeks earlier, Sneed helped limit Tyreek Hill to an 8-62-0 line with a lost fumble. Two weeks earlier, Keenan Allen mustered a mere 4-55-0 line. You get the idea. Davante Adams and the Raiders are up next. Managers might consider the strong possibility that Adams will finish outside the top 28 in Week 12.
Explored a lot of stats late last night. A fascinating one is that entering Monday Night Football, Jalen Hurts had been sacked more than four times only once in his career. But in the first half, the Chiefs had already gotten to him five times. The fact that he and his team (and coaching staff) regrouped at halftime and made adjustments is a testament to Philly's resilience.
And think about it: Since losing to the Jets in Week 6, they've gone 4-0 with wins over the Dolphins, Commanders, Cowboys, and now Chiefs. Has any other squad had a tougher schedule during this stretch? Even without the underappreciated Dallas Goedert, and even with Brown locked down, Hurts managed 18.9 fantasy points while helping to lead his team to victory. Doesn't matter how ugly it was. I mean, it does. But given how poorly they played in the opening half, their turnaround was remarkable, and it should bolster managers' confidence that -- despite Brown's disappearance -- this top-heavy offense should keep managers happy the rest of the way.
Their defense stepped up too. And while their fantasy DST has been atrocious (relatively speaking), consider the quality of their opponents. They played Minnesota when the Vikes had Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins. They played the Rams when Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, and Matthew Stafford were healthy. While their pass defense has been horrendous -- and while an extraordinary number of Chiefs dropped passes saved the day for the Eagles' struggling unit -- keep in mind that Philly's #2 in the league in QB hits. They're tied for ninth in sacks and seventh in recovered fumbles.
And here's what's important from a fantasy perspective: Their next three contests are against the Bills, 49ers, and finally the Cowboys, wrapping up perhaps the toughest seven-game stretch any team has faced in years, and that's not an exaggeration. But . . . their next/final four games are against the Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, and (for those who play in Week 18) the Giants again. If you reach the fantasy playoffs with any Eagles on your roster, know that you'll be at a competitive advantage.
One more Hurts stat that threw me: Yesterday marked the seventh time in just under two years where Hurts has thrown zero touchdown passes. In all seven of those contests, Philly won by a touchdown or less. Not exactly fantasy-related. But really, how many other QBs are great enough -- and play on such a great team -- where they can win again and again despite not finding a teammate in the end zone.
For the Chiefs, imagine what could have happened if not for all those dropped passes, including on their final drive. While Marquez Valdes-Scantling was far from being the only one at fault, his dropped TD pass symbolizes what Patrick Mahomes is up against. Up until last year, the already all-time-great QB could lean on Tyreek Hill and an in-his-prime Travis Kelce. Last year, Kelce earned a career-high target rate, while one-year-rental JuJu Smith-Schuster stepped up when needed as the #1 WR, with Mahomes netting a terrific 102.5 passer rating when targeting him.
But this year, Mahomes is throwing to the least reliable receiving corps he's ever had. They lead the league in dropped passes. More than that, Rashee Rice doesn't appear poised to play the JuJu role, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are stuck in neutral, and MVS is about as boom-bust as you can get, with a decreasing amount of boom in each successive season.
This helps explain why Mahomes targeted Justin Watson a whopping 11 times. No QB has ever targeted Watson that much. Only once had Wilson eclipsed eight targets, and that was a 10-target showing four years ago, when Jameis Winston attempted 48 passes, and his only other wideouts were Breshad Perriman, Ishmael Hyman, and Codey McElroy. I'd never heard of Hyman or McElroy.
So yeah, Watson wasn't supposed to be a featured receiver in the Chiefs' "vaunted" offense. And his drops last night might return him to a subordinate role next week. Who knows. But this team needs another receiver, or someone needs to step up. Mahomes is the QB8 in fantasy points per game. That's not going to cut it, both in fantasy and for a team that realistically needs a near-elite passing attack to get back to the title game.
If you're rostering Mahomes, you need to hope something changes. He's thrown for less than 200 yards in back-to-back contests. The last time that happened was in 2019. In one of those games, Tyreek Hill played only seven offensive snaps. Mahomes can be good regardless. But to be great, he needs more than Kelce.