A critically important and also challenging slate of games tomorrow with the Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams on bye. That's right: the league's two top-scoring teams aren't playing in Week 10, and I'm not even talking about K.C. This puts a strain on fantasy managers' lineups (mine included, and more on that later). Add to that some rough injuries (like Tee Higgins) and difficult matchup, and tomorrow couldn't come at a worse time for many of us.
But we'll charge forward with confidence and in the pursuit of knowledge, because for winners, there's no better option. Let's run through the most notable fantasy storyline for each remaining team.
Colts (+1.5) vs. Patriots -- Taking Indy to win in yet another overseas matchup, starting once again at 9:30am Eastern. Josh Downs' momentum has slowed a bit since getting hurt, and he's firmly questionable after not practicing all week, making Alec Pierce and/or Isaiah McKenzie interesting flyers if the rookie can't play. I'm very curious whether Gardner Minshew can be serviceable or better after two straight weeks of mediocrity. And will New England unleash Rhamondre Stevenson? He's oscilated between 8 and 10 carries in each of his last five outings. There's late-season breakout potential for a guy who's playing on a team that's largely playing only for draft position.
Bengals (-6.5) vs. Texans -- Picking Cincy to win by a touchdown might seem ridiculous, especially with Higgins out and Ja'Marr Chase fighting through a back injury. But I have no faith in Houston's running game, and with Nico Collins probably out, the Bengals hold a clear edge (at least to me). Keep in mind, their pass D has been quite good all year. I'm watching to see if Joe Mixon (3.2 YPC or less in three of his last four games) can power through a near-elite run defense, and am also interested in seeing whether the boom-bust Tank Dell can take another step forward.
Vikings (+3) vs. Saints -- Taysom Hill is the overall TE9, with a great shot at cracking the top six with a half-decent performance. Simply incredible. And although Justin Jefferson is listed as questionable, he's officially a longshot. Still, K.J. Osborn should be back, along with the elite T.J. Hockenson. I want to see if Joshua Dobbs can play well against a fairly strong Saints D.
Steelers (-3) vs. Packers -- Jaire Alexander probably will sei, improving the odds for a monster bounce-back game for George Pickens. Do not give up on the young receiver. Remember, talent + opportunity usually win in the end. And for Green Bay, can we trust Aaron Jones as an unquestioned weekly starter going forward, or are there any lingering concerns?
Buccaneers (-1) vs. Titans -- Tennessee's D has yielded the NFL's fewest RB catches (22). That's Rachaad White's bread-and-butter. It'll be a fascinating sub-text for a running back who's averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, but who has no serious competition (yet). And can Will Levis continue to prove he deserves to be the Titans' 2024 starter?
Jaguars (+3) vs. 49ers -- The reeling Niners are somehow favorites. I don't get it. Jacksonville should win this one, and it's only a matter of time before "middling" Trevor Lawrence becomes "great" Trevor Lawrence. For San Francisco, Brock Purdy had 2+ TD's in nine of his first 10 career starts. But he hasn't done it in three games since. Now with his core finally healthy, we'll see if he can snap back . . . or if defenses are adjusting.
Ravens (-6.5) vs. Browns -- If Keaton Mitchell is good to go, can he dominate again? While he might not get more than 6-8 touches, we now know he's capable of doing a lot with very little. And this will be one of Deshaun Watson's biggest tests since his Texans blew a 24-0 lead against the Chiefs in the playoffs nearly four years ago. I believe we'll see either brilliance or awfulness. Either he's mentally and physically capable of elevating his team, or he'll look like a shell of his former self.
Cardinals (+1.5) vs. Falcons -- Although Arizona is nearly mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, they're bringing back Kyler Murray and probably James Conner. I think they'll win by double-digits, thanks to a receiving corps that's good enough to keep pace with whatever Atlanta throws at them. All eyes should be on how Kyler and Conner look, and whether managers can trust them going forward. For the Falcons, we'll see if the returning Drake London can reassert himself as the alpha WR in Taylor Heinicke's passing attack.
Chargers (+3) vs. Lions -- Taking the Chargers to win. Let's see if Quentin Johnston can make us (almost) forget about Joshua Palmer. I have high hopes for 10+ points. And how will David Montgomery's return impact Jahmyr Gibbs. I still believe Gibbs will outperform the veteran the rest of the way.
Cowboys (-17.5) vs. Giants -- Saquon Barkley will get as much as he can handle in an otherwise broken offense -- unless New York's down 20+ at halftime, at which point some managers might regret starting him. Beyond this week, there's no conceivable way he'll remain active for most/all of the fantasy playoffs. Simply my opinion, of course. And how desperate am I at running back? I just picked up Deuce Vaughn and am planning to start him and Rico Dowdle. It's the riskiest of hedges: two backup RBs. But again, if this turns out to be a blowout, this tandem could see 8+ touches apiece. That's the hope, anyway.
Commanders (+6) at Seahawks -- Picking Washington to lose narrowly. Brian Robinson is a huge wild card after laboring on the ground in five of his last six outings, and with Antonio Gibson getting more involved the last two weeks (possibly not a coincidence). For Seattle, can Jaxon Smith-Njigba keep pushing for the 1A wideout role?
Jets (+1) at Raiders -- Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and the Jets' defense once again will try to keep this team relevant. Notably, Hall has picked up only 115 yards on his last 54 carries, spanning a little more than three games versus a great run D, a middling run D, a sub-par run D, and (in his final few carries four games ago) the league's worst run D. It's not about Hall; it's about a largely one-dimensional offense that empowers defenses to focus on one of the Jets' two best playmakers. And for Vegas, is Davante Adams startable anymore? Maybe he'll return to greatness. Or maybe he's too big of a risk.
Bills (-7.5) vs. Broncos -- Trying to understand this point spread. I've got Buffalo winning by 14+. Dalton Kincaid led this team in targets last weekend. Is it safe to call him near-elite? And for Denver, Javonte Williams is coming off a 30-touch performance before the bye. Is the Jaleel McLaughlin craze already over, or is he still 100% rosterable on a team that might start looking to 2024 by December?