Not sure what's more shocking: Buffalo's dismal 5-5 record or Denver's embraceable 4-5 record. These teams were separated by 8.5 games last year. Now they're battling for a Wild Card spot, with the Broncos winning the tiebreaker.
Putting fantasy on hold for a moment -- though all this will tie back to fantasy eventually -- last night's result reinforced a dramatic shift in two franchises' fortunes. Entering this contest, the Bills had won 16 of their previous 19 home games, while the Broncos had won only three of their last 18 road games. Head to head, Buffalo had won three straight over Denver, with each victory margin larger than the previous one.
And these were the only NFL teams with a zero turnover differential -- the same number of giveaways as takeaways. But somehow, the Broncos forced four turnovers yesterday, while Buffalo forced none. And that, in a nutshell, was the difference. It also might have been the difference between some of you winning and losing, with the Bills losing the ball twice in Denver territory -- including an interception that deflected off of Gabe Davis's hands in the red zone.
They left points on the board, and as a result, they left fantasy points on the board. And now they're 2-4 since crushing the Dolphins in Week 4. Interestingly, the Broncos are 4-2 since getting crushed by the Dolphins in Week 3. Miami represents an inflection point. Denver has ascended after suffering one of the most humiliating defeats in recent history, while Buffalo has crashed after establishing a short-lived foothold on what would be their fourth straight AFC East title.
Digging into the fantasy implications, we should anticipate the *possibility* of a Bills shake-up, which started playing out when Latavius Murray dominated touches on the first couple of drives after James Cook's early fumble. It's also concerning that Davis has caught only two of his last 10 targets. While he's been Allen's clear #2 WR since the start of last season, his erratic play is not sustainable for a franchise that might need to topple Miami and/or Kansas City on the road to reach the Super Bowl.
And what do we make of the ageless Murray, who's played for four teams in the last 24 months? He'll turn 34 in January, but is running well enough to keep Leonard Fournette on the practice squad. Although Cook deserves a lot of credit for running brilliantly after his disastrous fumble (and essentially getting benched), last night marked only his second performance with 8.5+ points in his last six games, and he's still hovering around the 10-14 touch range most weeks -- not enough to keep him comfortably startable. Murray's usage and effectiveness only make things tougher for the much younger Cook.
The key here is that Buffalo still doesn't trust Cook enough to give him bellcow volume, and that should keep Murray relevant in deeper leagues. But I'd caution managers not to value Murray ahead of Cook. Murray looked pretty bad in recent weeks, and he stepped up against his former team. I'd expect him to top out at around 35 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards most weeks going forward.
Meanwhile, Denver again leaned heavily on Javonte Williams, who now has 55 touches in his last two outings. He's also scored in each of these games after not finding the end zone in any of his first six games. It's fantastic news for managers who didn't know whether Jaleel McLaughlin or even Samaje Perine could cut into Williams' ceiling. Those worries are a distant memory -- as long as Williams stays healthy. And it's worth pointing out that Perine's on pace for nearly 50 catches this season. I picked him up and started him out of desperation this week, and I don't plan on dropping him. He's a solid deep-league stash.
Through the air, while Russell Wilson gets some credit for helming this offense -- and while he's played marginally better than he did last year -- his recent numbers probably aren't sustainable. He's not throwing enough, even with negative game scripts. Courtland Sutton's insane TD catch aside, Wilson cannot consistently feed more than one fantasy receiver. And as long as the Broncos aren't getting blown out, it appears this team is content to run the offense more through their backfield than through their declining quarterback.
is With 136 games in the books and 136 remaining, the 2-7 Bears and 1-7 Panthers will officially kick off the second half of the season. And actually, these two franchises have a lot more in common than their dismal records.